Should the New Orleans Saints Start Terron Armstead At LT?

July 5, 2013 by

The left tackle position remains wide open between OT Charles Brown and OT Terron Armstead heading into training camp. Armstead ran the fastest time ever for an offensive lineman at the combine, but that is not why this third round pick and 75th overall selection in the 2013 NFL Draft should be starting.

Terron Armstead should be starting because his analytical profile shows that he has the capacity to handle quality pass rushing defensive ends off the edge. Pressure by way of the LT has the highest overall impact on the team’s quarterback rating. Although he came out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, he started 32 games and played in 37 of them and added validity to his analytic profile with a good Senior Bowl effort. The projection is that over the next 3-5 years, Armstead is going to blossom into one of the better left tackles in the league and will be a long time starter for the New Orleans Saints.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Football Analytics, New Orleans Saints, NFL Draft, Offensive Tackles (OT)

An Evaluation Of The Pass Rush Potential Of Houston Texans OLB Trevardo Williams Versus OLB Sam Montgomery

July 3, 2013 by

When the Houston Texans drafted OLB Sam Montgomery with the 95th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, they left value on the board.  When they drafted OLB Trevardo Williams with the 124th overall selection in the 4th round of the 2013 NFL Draft, they made a much better decision.

Trevardo Williams meets the essential analytics that are common among good pass rushers in the league.  Sam Montgomery does not. It does not mean Sam Montgomery won’t have a better career, but when doing a risk assessment and analysis, the odds are against it. Football analytics should be used to tilt odds in your favor for long term success.

Trevardo Williams has the potential to be a very good pass rusher. He not only meets the analytic metrics that correlate with success, but he brings production to the table. It isn’t merely the production, but the consistency of it combined with his analytical profile that suggests he will be able to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL. The prediction here is that OLB Trevardo Williams will have more career sacks and pressures than OLB Sam Montgomery. Trevardo Williams will also likely win a starting job at outside linebacker within his first three years in the league.

Filed Under: 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), Football Analytics, Houston Texans, NFL Draft

The Unique Case Of Green Bay Packers WR Charles Johnson

July 2, 2013 by

The Green Bay Packers drafted WR Charles Johnson in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  Johnson played at Grand Valley State, but he has a lot of physical tools.

Analytically, his profile is that of a wide receiver with excellent physical measures, and a tremendous production score. His reliance metric and volume do present increased risk that must be factored in.  Overall, he presents good upside from where he was selected in the NFL Draft. Additionally, he is one of the unique cases (see RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals) in the NFL Draft to not have a direct close comparative at his position logged into our system.  The list of wide receivers on the outer fringes does make an intriguing list though.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Bengals, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, NFL Draft, Running Backs (RB), Wide Receivers (WR)

Going Back To Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver, Rishard Matthews

July 1, 2013 by

While the reports continue to vary on the role WR Rishard Matthews will have with the Dolphins in 2013, he remains under valued in the market. He was taken in the 2012 draft with pick 227 overall in the 7th round.  He has a solid production metric at wide receiver and his total value as a wide receiver and punt returner is past what you see from wide receivers that are typically the better producers in the NFL.

So how does analytics compare WR Rishard Matthews to WR Armon Binns? Binns has been making headlines for having a very good offseason.  That said, when comparing the two, Matthews had better production metrics for both wide receiver and special teams value, better reliance metrics, faced much better competition, and will make more plays at the NFL level. According to our analytical system, WR Rishard Matthews has a ceiling consistent with early round WRs. The Dolphins spent a lot of money on a wide receiver this offseason believing it would fix their “pin the tail on the donkey” methodology with evaluating wide receivers, including overpaying Brian Hartline who had 74 receptions and only 1 TD.  I am confident that WR Rishard Matthews will have more TDs in his first 74 NFL receptions.  He currently sits at 11 receptions.

While the Dolphins left value on the table, they had a solid early part of the draft. Rishard Matthews continues to be one of the biggest arbitrage selections at WR in recent years from my view, behind only WR Cecil Shorts, and a wide receiver in this class coming in a future post.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)