How Risky Is WR Cordarrelle Patterson Of The Minnesota Vikings?

July 10, 2013 by

Yesterday, a review on WR T.Y. Hilton was posted speaking of the ability to isolate components of a game to try and get a better measure on what the overall value a player can add. The Vikings had three first round picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, and traded four picks (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to move back into the end of the first round to get WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

So what did they draft when they selected Patterson? Well, there is no doubt Patterson is able to make plays with the ball in his hands. He faced stout competition and was challenged heavily, both metrics in his favor, but had a slightly less than neutral reliance metric score which may have little effect considering how low his wide receiver metric was. What pops out is the gap between his overall ability to make plays and his pure WR metric. The gap is very large, and his pure WR metric is very low while his overall ability metric clears the threshold with plenty of margin.

This type of profile suggests that Patterson may struggle as a pure WR, but will have the ability to do things that are special in other ways, including kick returner, punt returner,  and running game. In comparing Patterson to Hilton, this is what is seen: Hilton is a much better pure WR, but his overall metric is lower than Patterson. Patterson has a very low WR metric, but a higher overall metric. Comparative analysis compares Patterson’s game to a mix of WR Devin Hester and WR Jordan Shipley, although the advantage Patterson has on them is additional size. Hester has made numerous pro bowls as a return man, but has struggled as a wide receiver. He has also scored the most special teams touchdowns in NFL history. Shipley’s career has been derailed with injuries, but he did have 52 catches in his rookie season.

So, how risky is Patterson? He is quite a bit of risk at wide receiver, but at least brings a safety net of value that could impact games. Tomorrow, we will look at the other side of the trade that provided the Minnesota Vikings the right to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson as it may have been the most brilliant move of the draft.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Kick Returners (KR), Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Indianapolis Colts And The T.Y. Hilton Learning Experience

July 9, 2013 by

While the 2013 NFL Draft appears to have been a tough one for the Indianapolis Colts, there is a lesson that was learned in the 2012 NFL Draft with WR T.Y. Hilton. Coming into the league, Hilton had the makeup of being dynamic with the ball in his hands while only possessing average wide receiver metrics. He is very similar in what WR Cordarelle Patterson offers the Minnesota Vikings. The lesson to be learned was to evaluate metrics that presented a clearer picture of a player that can offer more as a playmaker with the ball in their hands against only what they can do purely as Wide Receiver.

The result provided a boost to Hilton that would push him above the threshold for a long term wide receiver option. Hilton had a fine rookie campaign, catching 50 passes and 7 TDs. He had a great first step into his NFL career, but one of his metrics still puts a little bit of caution on him sustaining great numbers consistently for the long term.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Draft, Wide Receivers (WR)

What Is The Outlook On The Detroit Lions 2013 NFL Draft Class?

July 8, 2013 by

The Detroit Lions 2013 NFL Draft lacked any arbitrage opportunities and the class is also at a high risk of not producing any pro bowl players. Having volunteered with an organization that deals heavily with International Students, I have been told directly from an individual that came from the same region as Ansah on how easy it was to doctor his birth certificate as well as the purposes behind why he did it.  In addition of the reports of scouts questioning his age, this tidbit of information does not give me any confidence in the age of DE Ziggy Ansash matching that on his birth certificate, adding further risk on his selection. It is quite possible that even if Ansah is the real deal, that his career has a high risk of being shorter than the typical defensive end.

CB Darius Slay is likely to be a solid, but unspectacular cornerback once his knee heals. As long as he returns to full health, he holds the highest probability of making a pro bowl. The odds are against him, but it is not out of the realm of possibility for that to be his ceiling.

The 2013 NFL Draft for the Detroit Lions has all the makings of finishing in the bottom third of the league in long term production since the first two round picks have a bit of risk, and the rest of the picks have analytical profiles of very little upside and arbitrage opportunity.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Cornerbacks (CB), Detroit Lions, Football Analytics, NFL Draft

Can OT Justin Pugh Answer The Call For The New York Giants?

July 7, 2013 by

The New York Giants have had a trend of taking defensive linemen in the first round of NFL Drafts.  This has been one of the key reasons that they have had success with some playoff runs. Pressure on a Quarterback has a tremendous affect in lowering the opposing team’s QB rating.  And the QB rating differential between two teams correlates highly with wins and losses.

Here is just one example:

During the New England Patriots 16-0 run in 2007, they had a QB rating differential of +37.9, a very substantial margin. It was why they won so many games and went undefeated during the regular season.  However, in the Super Bowl, the Giants were on the plus side of the equation with a +4.8 rating.  The biggest difference in that game was the heavy reduction of Tom Brady’s usual QB rating.  Eli Manning was just slightly above his career rating, and the team effort kept them on the plus side of the margin.

In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Giants drafted OT Justin Pugh. For value to be realized, he must be able to play and stick at right tackle for the long term. Based on his analytical profile, I believe it is a longshot that he will stick at offensive tackle and will have to make a move to offensive guard within the next 3-5 years. If Justin Pugh can overcome the odds and become a successful RT, it will have a significant impact to the QB rating on the offensive side of the ledger for Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Giants, NFL Draft, Offensive Guards (OG), Offensive Tackles (OT), Quaterbacks (QB)

Atlanta Falcons Flying High With Cornerback Desmond Trufant

July 6, 2013 by

The Atlanta Falcons bolstered their defensive backfield with two very solid selections in CB Desmond Trufant and CB Robert Alford.  For the purposes of this discussion though, I will focus on Cornerback Desmond Trufant.

CB Desmond Trufant was taken in the first round, and even so, was an arbitrage selection at number 22 overall.  Drafted out of Washington, Trufant follows in the footsteps of brothers, Marcus Trufant and Isaiah Trufant.  What makes Desmond Trufant an arbitrage selection is not only the elite physical test metrics and the DNA, but also the production metrics of the wide receivers that he was lining up against.  If you want, take time to compare what he did with that of CB Darrelle Revis.  In a passing league, good corners are critical to winning, and the Atlanta Falcons have lined up a very good duo at the position for the long term.

Filed Under: Atlanta Falcons, Cornerbacks (CB), Football Analytics, NFL Draft