The Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, And An Alabama RB Discussion

NFL Data Consultants was not a fan of what the Cleveland Browns did with their 2013 NFL Draft.  Despite the selection of QB Brandon Weeden in the 2012 NFL Draft, they did come away with some talent on offense with RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon (supplemental draft).  Josh Gordon is a case where an organization needs to assign its risk level because he had meet the criteria analytically of a player worth taking, but had other concerns that would affect his long term potential.  At least the Cleveland Browns aren’t totally devoid of analytics.  They do have a single analytics guy, which is better than nothing but it makes his job challenging depending on the level of analytical buy-in from the organization and scouting department.

With RB Trent Richardson, the Cleveland Browns took the best all around running back of the three primarily talked about running backs of Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, and Eddie Lacy in recent NFL Drafts.  Lacy has health concerns, and since I don’t have a medical team to put that into a proper measuring tool, I will speak about what can be seen analytically.  Lacy played the toughest competition of the three backs and was a hammer doing it.  His production metrics were outstanding, but they are only one piece of the puzzle.  His full picture compares him more to committee backs.  Richardson finished in the middle on production metrics, but presents the best overall package and the best ability of the three in the passing game.  Mark Ingram had the lowest competition score between the three and the lowest yards per carry.

What Is The Upside Of QB Mike Glennon Of Tampa Bay Bucs?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted QB Mike Glennon in the 3rd round in the 2013 NFL Draft to compete with current backup QB, Dan Orlovsky.  The interesting part of Mike Glennon’s analysis, is his analytic profile comparison to a Quarterback that has won multiple Super Bowls.  That is correct, his upside is Eli Manning. Before stepping away, consider Eli Manning only has a career QB rating in the low 80s; however, while Eli has been average much of the time, he has been special in clutch situations.  While we don’t know whether Mike Glennon has the “clutch gene”, we can see that his upside QB rating would project in the low 80s.

Although he wouldn’t have been our top QB available at the time, considering how difficult it is to find a Quarterback in this league, Mike Glennon is certainly worth the gamble of his draft position.  The bigger question as to how far his career will go is if he can perform in the clutch well enough to mask his QB rating upside.

Shamarko Thomas, The Next Great Pittsburgh Steelers Safety?

The biggest knock on S Shamarko Thomas is his height and concussions, which are the prominent reasons he fell to the 4th round and pick 111 overall in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Analytics and data modeling can measure the likelihood of height affecting success considering all the other data points, and studying film on Dahon Goldson’s tackling technique (see Bobby Hosea’s helmet free tackling technique) would be critical in reducing concussions.

What Shamarko Thomas lacks with height, he makes up in every other area with his physical measures.  He led his team in tackles as a safety, thus a further verification of the physical metrics and range on the field.  He has the versatility to play either Free Safety or Strong Safety, and his background also suggests qualitative measures of leadership and determination for success.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a good habit of developing players internally.  Thomas will likely have a year or two of seasoning before taking the reigns, but when he does, he is expected to excel.

The Arizona Cardinals Improve Their Offensive Line With OG Jonathan Cooper

The Arizona Cardinals have not excited me with their recent drafts.  Their best offseason move was to bring in Bruce Arians, to be Head Coach as he will likely be a tremendous benefit to the offense.  There is a reason he has the nickname of Wide Receiver Whisperer.

While the Arizona Cardinals did not take advantage of the abundance of arbitrage opportunities in the 2013 NFL Draft, they did have a solid selection worth mentioning.  First, the value of the position of this player relative to where he was selected is for another article.  I am not grading where the player was, but the quality of a player for his position and long term value.  OG Jonathan Cooper has the analytical profile of a guard that will be starting for many years.  One of his non-modified metrics meets the thresholds you would want in a good OT or DE, but he will be doing it from the Guard position.  The fact that they have a guard that will be a very good player at his position is worth noting.  Again, positional value of offensive guard is worth an analytical study.

The Buffalo Bills, Moneyball, And WR Robert Woods

Bill President, Russ Brandon, declared that the Buffalo Bills would be a Moneyball organization.  While the 2013 NFL Draft was not a strong indication of that direction by their scouting department, the Buffalo Bills did take a very solid wide receiver prospect in Robert Woods.

WR Robert Woods was taken 41 overall in the second round out of Southern California.  Despite playing across from one of the more highly touted wide receivers in the nation in Marquise Lee, he put up good reliance and production analytical scores, both which suggest that he is a very small risk for failure.  At the wide receiver position, he was probably one of the safest plays if you were looking for a long term starter.   Interestingly enough, his comparative analysis also shows something very unique about him, but that will be left as a mystery to you for now.  What isn’t a mystery is that WR Robert Woods analytical profile shows he was a good selection by the Buffalo Bills.