Center Brian Schwenke Likely To Make An Impact With Tennessee Titans

June 30, 2013 by

Brian Schwenke was taken by the Tennessee Titans in the 4th round of the NFL Draft and was their highest rated center (OC) on their board.  Kudos to the organization and scouting staff for finding a long term starter in the 4th round. When the pads go on, Schwenke should immediately start earning more opportunity.

On his analytical profile alone, he should be the opening day starter at center.  The organization may choose to go with more experience however in lieu of talent. Schwenke has multiple pro bowl level potential, and we shall see if it comes to fruition.

Filed Under: Centers (OC), Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens And Their 2013 NFL Draft

June 29, 2013 by

Baltimore is a team that has implemented an analytics department, and it shows with their 2013 NFL Draft selections of  Matt Elam (Strong Safety) and Arthur Brown (Inside Linebacker), two players that should be cornerstones for the defense for the long term.  Arthur Brown in particular meets a particular metric that has been a standard among the better ILBs in the league.  The Baltimore Ravens scouting department has traditionally been one of the best in the league.

However, I want to focus the analytical study more on WR Aaron Mellette, who has been a favorite of some other analytical minds.  He is also touted as having a good offseason.  His pure production analytic scores are great, but his reliance and comparative analytics are both huge red flags.  None of his comparative wide receivers have even made NFL rosters and they too have had good base production metrics.  He does have the best opportunity of the comparatives to break the trend of not making an NFL roster, but the odds are against him making a long term impact.  WR Aaron Mellette was a 7th round pick out of Elon by the Baltimore Ravens though, thus the miss here is of a minimal nature.  With ILB Arthur Brown and SS Matt Elam on board, the Ravens fans will not have to worry much about Mellette failing to make a long term impact.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), Baltimore Ravens, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Strong Safeties (SS), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, And An Alabama RB Discussion

June 28, 2013 by

NFL Data Consultants was not a fan of what the Cleveland Browns did with their 2013 NFL Draft.  Despite the selection of QB Brandon Weeden in the 2012 NFL Draft, they did come away with some talent on offense with RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon (supplemental draft).  Josh Gordon is a case where an organization needs to assign its risk level because he had meet the criteria analytically of a player worth taking, but had other concerns that would affect his long term potential.  At least the Cleveland Browns aren’t totally devoid of analytics.  They do have a single analytics guy, which is better than nothing but it makes his job challenging depending on the level of analytical buy-in from the organization and scouting department.

With RB Trent Richardson, the Cleveland Browns took the best all around running back of the three primarily talked about running backs of Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, and Eddie Lacy in recent NFL Drafts.  Lacy has health concerns, and since I don’t have a medical team to put that into a proper measuring tool, I will speak about what can be seen analytically.  Lacy played the toughest competition of the three backs and was a hammer doing it.  His production metrics were outstanding, but they are only one piece of the puzzle.  His full picture compares him more to committee backs.  Richardson finished in the middle on production metrics, but presents the best overall package and the best ability of the three in the passing game.  Mark Ingram had the lowest competition score between the three and the lowest yards per carry.

Filed Under: Cleveland Browns, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)

What Is The Upside Of QB Mike Glennon Of Tampa Bay Bucs?

June 27, 2013 by

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted QB Mike Glennon in the 3rd round in the 2013 NFL Draft to compete with current backup QB, Dan Orlovsky.  The interesting part of Mike Glennon’s analysis, is his analytic profile comparison to a Quarterback that has won multiple Super Bowls.  That is correct, his upside is Eli Manning. Before stepping away, consider Eli Manning only has a career QB rating in the low 80s; however, while Eli has been average much of the time, he has been special in clutch situations.  While we don’t know whether Mike Glennon has the “clutch gene”, we can see that his upside QB rating would project in the low 80s.

Although he wouldn’t have been our top QB available at the time, considering how difficult it is to find a Quarterback in this league, Mike Glennon is certainly worth the gamble of his draft position.  The bigger question as to how far his career will go is if he can perform in the clutch well enough to mask his QB rating upside.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Shamarko Thomas, The Next Great Pittsburgh Steelers Safety?

June 26, 2013 by

The biggest knock on S Shamarko Thomas is his height and concussions, which are the prominent reasons he fell to the 4th round and pick 111 overall in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Analytics and data modeling can measure the likelihood of height affecting success considering all the other data points, and studying film on Dahon Goldson’s tackling technique (see Bobby Hosea’s helmet free tackling technique) would be critical in reducing concussions.

What Shamarko Thomas lacks with height, he makes up in every other area with his physical measures.  He led his team in tackles as a safety, thus a further verification of the physical metrics and range on the field.  He has the versatility to play either Free Safety or Strong Safety, and his background also suggests qualitative measures of leadership and determination for success.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a good habit of developing players internally.  Thomas will likely have a year or two of seasoning before taking the reigns, but when he does, he is expected to excel.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Free Safeties (FS), NFL Draft, Pittsburgh Steelers, Strong Safeties (SS)