NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 2

August 15, 2013 by

Volume 2 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Reports out of the St. Louis Rams camp continue to remain very positive on WR Stedman Bailey. Below is a quote from ESPN’s NFC West Blog, written by Nick Wagoner: “Rookie receiver Stedman Bailey had another strong practice in what is now turning into a long line of them. He was essentially perfect in one-on-one drills and continued to get open and catch everything thrown his way in team drills. It remains to be seen if he can do it against the top corners but he’s having his way with the backups on a regular basis.” NFL Data Consultants has also confirmed this report with a league source.
  • Quarterback Matt Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles posted a 78.4 Quarterback Rating in his NFL preseason debut, completing 11 of 22 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Despite the struggles he had, he did not turn the ball over and he improved as the game went on, especially in the no huddle offense.
  • In the derby to start at Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles completed 5 of 6 passes for 43 yards and posted a QB Rating of over 100. His true test will come in NFL Preaseason Week 2, as he will be starting.  Michael Vick had a great outing with his 5 attempts, yet 5 attempts by Michael Vick and 6 attempts by Nick Foles is too small of a data sample to make any sound conclusions.
  • Seattle Seahawks Tight End Luke Willson got the start in place of the injured Zach Miller and caught 2 passes for 16 yards. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated that the rookie TE is having a great camp. His blocking continues to improve.
  • Buffalo Bills WR Robert Woods started at Wide Receiver in the preseason opener, where he caught 4 balls for 32 yards. Buffalo Bills General Manager Doug Whaley quoted the following regarding Robert Woods: “When he came into OTAs and even out here for training camp, he looks like a 10-year veteran. That’s exactly what we thought of him: Polished.”

This concludes the updates on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason

Filed Under: Buffalo Bills, Football Analytics, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), St. Louis Rams, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 1

August 12, 2013 by

Volume 1 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • After missing two games with an undisclosed injury to his knee, Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver Rishard Matthews has returned to practice, running a vertical route and making a fantastic catch down the sideline on a Ryan Tannehill pass; it was described as the play of the day.
  • Atlanta Falcons Cornerback Desmond Trufant had a nice start to his career, playing well in his NFL debut. As quoted from Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith, “I was impressed with the way that they [Desmond Trufant / Robert Alford] handled it, not only their production on the field but their grade sheet when we graded it on Friday.” 
  • Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson demonstrated his elite skills in the return right off the bat, with a 50 yard return on the opening kickoff. Despite less than ideal route running skills, he was also able to produce in the passing game with 4 receptions for 54 yards

More to follow on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason later in the week.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Atlanta Falcons, Cornerbacks (CB), Detroit Lions, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Wide Receivers (WR)

Why St. Louis Rams Wide Receiver, Stedman Bailey, Is Destined For NFL Success

July 17, 2013 by

The St. Louis Rams selected two wide receivers out of West Virginia in the 2013 NFL Draft, taking WR Tavon Austin with the 8th overall pick and WR Stedman Bailey in the 3rd round with the 92nd pick overall. While I have a unique perspective at looking at WR Tavon Austin, it is the selection of WR Stedman Bailey that I will cover here.

By the title, it is easy to note that the belief at NFL Data Consultants is that Stedman Bailey will be a special NFL player. Analytically, he personifies all of the characteristics of success. His Reliance score is positive, his production metric meets the threshold several times over, his metrics met the threshold for better validity, and his movement metrics are good enough to hold an overall comparison to a more athletic wide receiver that has had success in the NFL. Basically, Stedman Bailey is a better football player and wide receiver than a pure athlete, perhaps the reason he was still available in the third round.

Wide Receiver is one of the most misjudged positions in the league. If you don’t believe that, go review all of the first and second round wide receivers and compare that to their career results. It is a position where teams can take advantage of arbitrage because the market value and actual value often varies heavily. With this selection, the St. Louis Rams did just that. Stedman Bailey holds very little risk for failure as an NFL wide receiver and has a very high upside as well. Stedman Bailey’s analytical profile screams that he  is destined for NFL success.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, St. Louis Rams, Wide Receivers (WR)

An Interesting Look Into San Diego Chargers Tight End Ladarius Green

July 14, 2013 by

For the San Diego Chargers, I will focus less on the 2013 NFL Draft and more on an unheralded prospect from the 2012 NFL Draft. This article will take a deeper look at TE Ladarius Green and his future outlook in the NFL.

One key positive about TE Ladarius Green is that he had a higher score in the receiving production metric than did WR Keenan Allen. It is interesting to note that it is rare for a Tight End to hit the threshold for wide receivers in this metric, which Ladarius Green did. However, the reliance metric for Keenan Allen is strong, while it was negative for Ladarius Green.

Upon looking at the reliance metrics with all the tight ends sorted by the receiving production metric, there was one thing that stood out. No Tight End that meet the threshold for the production metric for the WR position had much NFL impact if they also had a negative reliance metric score, which fits the profile that Ladarius Green fits under.

The question then becomes, can Ladarius Green defeat this trend? He would become the first of 14 Tight Ends to have a receiving production metric that meets Wide Receiver thresholds while also having a negative reliance metric. Those are tough, but not insurmountable odds. He does have nice straight ahead movement metrics as well as other metrics that may signal success. The San Diego Chargers scheme will have to be tailored to maximize his upside and potential for that to happen.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, San Diego Chargers, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

How Risky Is WR Cordarrelle Patterson Of The Minnesota Vikings?

July 10, 2013 by

Yesterday, a review on WR T.Y. Hilton was posted speaking of the ability to isolate components of a game to try and get a better measure on what the overall value a player can add. The Vikings had three first round picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, and traded four picks (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to move back into the end of the first round to get WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

So what did they draft when they selected Patterson? Well, there is no doubt Patterson is able to make plays with the ball in his hands. He faced stout competition and was challenged heavily, both metrics in his favor, but had a slightly less than neutral reliance metric score which may have little effect considering how low his wide receiver metric was. What pops out is the gap between his overall ability to make plays and his pure WR metric. The gap is very large, and his pure WR metric is very low while his overall ability metric clears the threshold with plenty of margin.

This type of profile suggests that Patterson may struggle as a pure WR, but will have the ability to do things that are special in other ways, including kick returner, punt returner,  and running game. In comparing Patterson to Hilton, this is what is seen: Hilton is a much better pure WR, but his overall metric is lower than Patterson. Patterson has a very low WR metric, but a higher overall metric. Comparative analysis compares Patterson’s game to a mix of WR Devin Hester and WR Jordan Shipley, although the advantage Patterson has on them is additional size. Hester has made numerous pro bowls as a return man, but has struggled as a wide receiver. He has also scored the most special teams touchdowns in NFL history. Shipley’s career has been derailed with injuries, but he did have 52 catches in his rookie season.

So, how risky is Patterson? He is quite a bit of risk at wide receiver, but at least brings a safety net of value that could impact games. Tomorrow, we will look at the other side of the trade that provided the Minnesota Vikings the right to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson as it may have been the most brilliant move of the draft.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Kick Returners (KR), Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)