A Comparative Analysis Summary Of The New York Jets Quarterbacks Geno Smith And Mark Sanchez

The New York Jets have been stricken with a disease that is a cancer to an organization, known as bad quarterback play. Mark Sanchez is what I would label as a “flat liner”. If you chart his QB Rating rating progression against time, you get a small dip early from just over 70 to just below 70 and slight bounce back to just over 70 and then a pretty long pretty flat line. Entering the 2013 NFL season, Mark Sanchez sits at a career QB rating of 71.7.

Thus, as a response, the New York Jets drafted another Quarterback, selecting QB Geno Smith in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft with the 39th pick overall. One type of analysis I do is break down a prospect with a mix of known metrics, often with my own modifications, and a number of my own proprietary metrics plus a clear rule and methodology for inclusion. I can then compare this to all players at the position to find the closest comparisons for a draft prospect and get a clearer picture of a floor/ceiling; better yet, I can remove human bias that I may have about a player.

The quarterback comparisons for Geno Smith are all either backup quarterbacks or out of the league currently. This group combines for 22 games started and 49 games played in the NFL. The QB Rating of their cumulative stats is in the 60s with an upside into the low 70s. From an analytical perspective, it is hard to believe that Geno Smith is going to be the quarterback solution for the New York Jets. Perhaps he can overcome the odds.

Interesting enough, the cumulative NFL stats for Mark Sanchez’s comparison group, excluding Sanchez, nets a 72.6 QB rating; compare that to Mark Sanchez’s career QB rating of 71.7. The New York Jets organization faces tough obstacles and will need resolve to overcome.


  1. […] New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven […]

  2. […] New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith finally got back on the field after returning from an ankle injury. The quote in my Preseason Week 2 Notes says it all. QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions and accounted for a safety by running through the back of the endzone. To top that off, QB Mark Sanchez entered the game in the 4th quarter behind a backup offensive line and injured his right shoulder. The New York Jets is an organization in disarray, and the only way out of that is to take a long term analytical approach. […]

  3. […] New York Jets QB Geno Smith ran a little bit ahead of his QB Rating, going 24 for 39 with 214 yards passing and a touchdown and interception. His QB Rating was 78.6, a little better than the low to mid 70s upside he is projected at. Now he will be challenged with a short week and the New England Patriots. […]

  4. […] QB Geno Smith’s had his Quarterback Rating fall to 55.2 after a game in which he completed only 15 of 35 passes for 214 yards and 3 interceptions and no touchdowns. NFL Data Consultants has noted extensively the projections of New York Jets QB Geno Smith as an NFL … […]

  5. […] As noted in the NFL Data Consultants prediction of the Philadelphia Eagles QBs, both Nick Foles and Matt Barkley have analytical comparisons to Pro Bowl Quarterbacks using our comparative analysis methodology. For Nick Foles, the comparison is Aaron Rodgers, who was afforded some development time behind Brett Favre. Foles has undertaken a very different development track, but the same upside remains and one game shouldn’t decide his fate, whether it was the poor performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7 or the record breaking performance against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. The key is using an analytical approach, not an emotional approach is to understand the upside, potential, or lack of it for a Quarterback and to understand measuring his development; this allows an objective approach when a single game may just be an outlier in either direction. (Example: The Nationally Televised MNF Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Yorks in which Geno Smith threw 3 touchdowns and no interceptions with a 147.7 QB Rating. To date, that is the only game in which he has a positive touchdown to interception ratio with 9 games played, and his current QB Rating of 71.0 is in the low 70s, which is in the range of Geno Smith’s analytical prediction.) […]

  6. […] If you are in need of a Quarterback, it is important to understand whether the ones that fit your system are capable of consistently winning at the next level. The sad nature of the NFL is that if you don’t have a reliable Quarterback, your job will always be in jeopardy. Under 20% of Quarterbacks taken in the first round since 1998 have a career QB Rating of >=90 and a QB Rating of 90 is the threshold for a QB to make the playoffs consistently with a league average defense or better. The question for the organizations selecting a Quarterback in this draft class, especially in Round 1: will you obtain one with a good chance to beat those odds that are already stacked against you? They only get harder the later you draft a Quarterback. You are lucky if there is one that will have at least a career 90 QB Rating in a given class, yet current draft projections show the possibility of 4 potential Quarterbacks chosen in the first round. Only the 2004 QB Draft class had more than 1 first round QB in it to surpass a career QB Rating of 90. NFL Data Consulants has Analytical QB Career Forecasts on around 150 Quarterbacks available. Now you know why we are confident when writing this on the: Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback Situation and this on the : New York Jets Quarterback Situation […]

  7. […] to market the difference between me and other analysts such as Nick Foles becoming a Pro Bowler, Geno Smith’s likeliness to struggle, and the outbreak of players like LB Jamie Collins and TE Luke Willson. I leave them up as a report […]