One of the organizations I respect is the New England Patriots because they are an organization that embodies intelligence and doing things that are outside the box. One such example was their ability to redefine how teams use multiple TEs to create on field mismatches.
One area however that the organization has struggled with over the past few years is the evaluation of WRs in the NFL rookie draft. Lets take a look at their selections of wide receivers since 2000, the year that they selected Brady, so you can see for yourself.
Looking at these wide receivers, it is quite easy to understand why they have gone to free agency for wide receivers. Chad Jackson was the highest WR taken among this group. As a 2nd round pick, he could be characterized as a complete failure. As a Patriot, he lasted 2 seasons and only started one game and caught 14 passes. In one of the key metrics I use as a gauge for WR play, he rated well below the standard bar so it would be no surprise that he struggled at the NFL level. Matt Slater has caught 1 pass, Taylor Price caught 5, Brandon Tate caught 24, and Bethel Johnson lasted long enough for 35 receptions. With the exception of Deion Branch, the other 4 WRs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (Jackson, Tate, Price, and Johnson), the Patriots received a return of only 79 receptions. A 20% success rate at the position in the draft for rounds 2 and 3 would concern me as an organization.
Wide Receiver is a heavily misjudged position for a number of reasons. The fact is that this misjudgment has created arbitrage opportunities for an organization looking to take advantage of it. In 2011, the arbitrage WR was Cecil Shorts, and in 2012, the arbitrage WR plays for an organization where the Head Coach wanted to play Pin the Tail on the Donkey to determine which WRs to keep. Fortunately for the Miami Dolphins, they cut the WR drafted ahead of Rishard Matthews, then cut Jabar Gaffney, and continued to increase his playing time late in the season. He compares to two WRs taken in the early first round.
With the known information at this point, the early favorite for this year’s arbitrage WR is emerging. He is comparing favorably to Roddy White at this early stage and is projected to go on the final day of the draft. If your organization is looking for a Wide Receiver with that type of comparison for a discount, NFL Data Consultants is the place for you.