An Extensive Analysis On The Houston Texans Quarterbacks: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, And Case Keenum

October 17, 2013 by

This article is in place to demonstrate the difference between an emotional and analytical approach. Fans often have an emotional approach, and the Quarterback situation for the Houston Texans verifies that. NFL Data Consulants will show clear data that will show a much clearer analytical picture. I will highlight the analytical outlook of Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, and Case Keenum.

Matt Schaub has a lot of Texans fans upset, but that is because they don’t see the full picture. Schaub has posted seasonal Quarterback ratings of 92.7, 98.6, 92, 96.8, and 90.7 leading up to this year. Since Quarterback Rating differential correlates highly with wins, it is obvious that these are very good QB Ratings for the offensive side of the equation. The question then becomes, is the 78.8 this season his reality or is it an outlier? As stated in the New York Jets analysis of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith, this analysis is performed using a combination of analytics and neural network/machine learning methodology. This allows for groupings of very similar characteristics and football DNA that the human eye cannot see. It also absolves the human bias. Using nearly 900 QBs and only using data before entering the league, I have been able to establish Quarterback groupings that provide a picture of a Quarterback’s future. What will be amazing is just how close Schaub’s career Quarterback Rating is to his analytical group.

Now that we have seen Matt Schaub’s group, there is two things to note. First, Philip Rivers was in a two year slump himself. Second, that is a fine group to be associated with and Schaub has lived up to the comparison group with his career performance.

So, when the fans were cheering the Matt Schaub injury, just what were they getting with T.J. Yates. Lets look at his comparison group.


Wow, now look at the difference between that comparison group and the comparison group of Matt Schaub. It is night and day. The Houston Texans have no business replacing Matt Schaub except for injury. We have to look at the Case Keenum group to get a good comparison to see which Quarterback should be playing in the event of injury.


Case Keenum’s comparison has a mixed bag that includes high upside, but also a first round bust and an undrafted QB that left the league to go coach before ever playing a down in the NFL. Because of the upside, Keenum needs to be the #2 Quarterback on the depth chart. While the Scouting Department should be congratulated for landing his upside at such as steep discount, QB Case Keenum should be playing only under one of these three circumstances:

1) Matt Schaub is injured or

2) The Houston Texans have been eliminated from the playoffs or

3) The Houston Texans are in a blowout game (ahead or behind)

Head Coach Gary Kubiak and the Houston Texans Coaching Staff have gone with the right Quarterback with Matt Schaub set to miss time with his injury. The analytical approach is pretty strong and clear on who should be taking the reigns when Matt Schaub is not available. The Houston Texans organization has a lot of class, and it is an organization that I respect very much.

Filed Under: Coaching Staff, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), Houston Texans, Quaterbacks (QB), Scouting Department

Center Brian Schwenke Likely To Make An Impact With Tennessee Titans

June 30, 2013 by

Brian Schwenke was taken by the Tennessee Titans in the 4th round of the NFL Draft and was their highest rated center (OC) on their board.  Kudos to the organization and scouting staff for finding a long term starter in the 4th round. When the pads go on, Schwenke should immediately start earning more opportunity.

On his analytical profile alone, he should be the opening day starter at center.  The organization may choose to go with more experience however in lieu of talent. Schwenke has multiple pro bowl level potential, and we shall see if it comes to fruition.

Filed Under: Centers (OC), Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens And Their 2013 NFL Draft

June 29, 2013 by

Baltimore is a team that has implemented an analytics department, and it shows with their 2013 NFL Draft selections of  Matt Elam (Strong Safety) and Arthur Brown (Inside Linebacker), two players that should be cornerstones for the defense for the long term.  Arthur Brown in particular meets a particular metric that has been a standard among the better ILBs in the league.  The Baltimore Ravens scouting department has traditionally been one of the best in the league.

However, I want to focus the analytical study more on WR Aaron Mellette, who has been a favorite of some other analytical minds.  He is also touted as having a good offseason.  His pure production analytic scores are great, but his reliance and comparative analytics are both huge red flags.  None of his comparative wide receivers have even made NFL rosters and they too have had good base production metrics.  He does have the best opportunity of the comparatives to break the trend of not making an NFL roster, but the odds are against him making a long term impact.  WR Aaron Mellette was a 7th round pick out of Elon by the Baltimore Ravens though, thus the miss here is of a minimal nature.  With ILB Arthur Brown and SS Matt Elam on board, the Ravens fans will not have to worry much about Mellette failing to make a long term impact.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), Baltimore Ravens, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Strong Safeties (SS), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, And An Alabama RB Discussion

June 28, 2013 by

NFL Data Consultants was not a fan of what the Cleveland Browns did with their 2013 NFL Draft.  Despite the selection of QB Brandon Weeden in the 2012 NFL Draft, they did come away with some talent on offense with RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon (supplemental draft).  Josh Gordon is a case where an organization needs to assign its risk level because he had meet the criteria analytically of a player worth taking, but had other concerns that would affect his long term potential.  At least the Cleveland Browns aren’t totally devoid of analytics.  They do have a single analytics guy, which is better than nothing but it makes his job challenging depending on the level of analytical buy-in from the organization and scouting department.

With RB Trent Richardson, the Cleveland Browns took the best all around running back of the three primarily talked about running backs of Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, and Eddie Lacy in recent NFL Drafts.  Lacy has health concerns, and since I don’t have a medical team to put that into a proper measuring tool, I will speak about what can be seen analytically.  Lacy played the toughest competition of the three backs and was a hammer doing it.  His production metrics were outstanding, but they are only one piece of the puzzle.  His full picture compares him more to committee backs.  Richardson finished in the middle on production metrics, but presents the best overall package and the best ability of the three in the passing game.  Mark Ingram had the lowest competition score between the three and the lowest yards per carry.

Filed Under: Cleveland Browns, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)

The Buffalo Bills, Moneyball, And WR Robert Woods

June 24, 2013 by

Bill President, Russ Brandon, declared that the Buffalo Bills would be a Moneyball organization.  While the 2013 NFL Draft was not a strong indication of that direction by their scouting department, the Buffalo Bills did take a very solid wide receiver prospect in Robert Woods.

WR Robert Woods was taken 41 overall in the second round out of Southern California.  Despite playing across from one of the more highly touted wide receivers in the nation in Marquise Lee, he put up good reliance and production analytical scores, both which suggest that he is a very small risk for failure.  At the wide receiver position, he was probably one of the safest plays if you were looking for a long term starter.   Interestingly enough, his comparative analysis also shows something very unique about him, but that will be left as a mystery to you for now.  What isn’t a mystery is that WR Robert Woods analytical profile shows he was a good selection by the Buffalo Bills.

Filed Under: Buffalo Bills, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)