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NFL 2013 Preseason Week 2 Football Notes

Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Michael Vick has won the starting job in Philadelphia. He has played tremendous this preseason and if going by the short sample, he is the logical choice. Vick has a tendency of turning the football over, and it is likely that a bigger sample size will bear that out. Luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles, they are deep in Quarterback options if the turnover trend emerges during the season.
  • TE Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He has Wide Receiver like potential out of the Tight End position, and just needs the right scheme to fit. With the San Diego Chargers struggling to keep WRs healthy, perhaps Ladarius Green will be able to carve more of a Wide Receiver like role even with a healthy Antonio Gates.
  • The New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven what he is. Geno Smith did not play after an injuring his ankle and having brutal practices. It is sort of like the quote, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” While Geno Smith is sidelined, he isn’t able to remove all doubt that he is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the New York Jets. Geno Smith is slated to start at QB for the New York Jets in Preseason Week 3.
  • It had to be nearly impossible for the St. Louis Rams to evaluate their second team wide receivers properly with the play of QB Kellen Clemens; WR Stedman Bailey was among this group that had little chance to be evaluated. Kellen Clemens provided a brutal Quarterback outing as he lived on the a rule of 2s; he threw 2 over the head of Bailey,completed 2 of his eleven passes, and then threw 2 interceptions. Quarterback is a difficult position to find and upgrade. Perhaps they could find an upgrade since there are 2 third string Quarterbacks that NDC analytics grades to have a good rate of success.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Strong Safety Shamarko Thomas led the team in tackles, providing 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He also forced a fumble that led to a turnover. He clearly demonstrated the skills of a successful Strong Safety.
  • While the Denver Broncos were getting beat like a drum by the Seattle Seahawks, the battle at running back raged on. RB Ronnie Hillman had 13 carries for 34 yards, and he turned the ball over with a fumble. A turnover and an average yards per carry of under 3 yards is going to make it tough to not hand the ball to RB Montee Ball; Ball had 6 carries for 28 yards, an average of 4.66 yards per carry. Analytically, it is clear that Montee Ball is the better ball carrier, but he did miss a blitz assignment that led to QB Peyton Manning being hit. The only thing that can keep him off the field is himself; it is based on his determination to learn and execute his pass block assignments. He has the skill set to be a successful runner in the NFL.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has yet to play this preseason due to a fractured finger. Now that it has healed and he has been cleard to catch passes, he should be available for evaluation in NFL Preseason Week 3 or Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly searching for answers at wide receiver as seen by the trading WR A.J. Jenkins to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin. Just like Jenkins, Baldwin has an analytical profile that suggests a high risk of failing.

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 2

Volume 2 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Reports out of the St. Louis Rams camp continue to remain very positive on WR Stedman Bailey. Below is a quote from ESPN’s NFC West Blog, written by Nick Wagoner: “Rookie receiver Stedman Bailey had another strong practice in what is now turning into a long line of them. He was essentially perfect in one-on-one drills and continued to get open and catch everything thrown his way in team drills. It remains to be seen if he can do it against the top corners but he’s having his way with the backups on a regular basis.” NFL Data Consultants has also confirmed this report with a league source.
  • Quarterback Matt Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles posted a 78.4 Quarterback Rating in his NFL preseason debut, completing 11 of 22 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Despite the struggles he had, he did not turn the ball over and he improved as the game went on, especially in the no huddle offense.
  • In the derby to start at Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles completed 5 of 6 passes for 43 yards and posted a QB Rating of over 100. His true test will come in NFL Preaseason Week 2, as he will be starting.  Michael Vick had a great outing with his 5 attempts, yet 5 attempts by Michael Vick and 6 attempts by Nick Foles is too small of a data sample to make any sound conclusions.
  • Seattle Seahawks Tight End Luke Willson got the start in place of the injured Zach Miller and caught 2 passes for 16 yards. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated that the rookie TE is having a great camp. His blocking continues to improve.
  • Buffalo Bills WR Robert Woods started at Wide Receiver in the preseason opener, where he caught 4 balls for 32 yards. Buffalo Bills General Manager Doug Whaley quoted the following regarding Robert Woods: “When he came into OTAs and even out here for training camp, he looks like a 10-year veteran. That’s exactly what we thought of him: Polished.”

This concludes the updates on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason

Why St. Louis Rams Wide Receiver, Stedman Bailey, Is Destined For NFL Success

The St. Louis Rams selected two wide receivers out of West Virginia in the 2013 NFL Draft, taking WR Tavon Austin with the 8th overall pick and WR Stedman Bailey in the 3rd round with the 92nd pick overall. While I have a unique perspective at looking at WR Tavon Austin, it is the selection of WR Stedman Bailey that I will cover here.

By the title, it is easy to note that the belief at NFL Data Consultants is that Stedman Bailey will be a special NFL player. Analytically, he personifies all of the characteristics of success. His Reliance score is positive, his production metric meets the threshold several times over, his metrics met the threshold for better validity, and his movement metrics are good enough to hold an overall comparison to a more athletic wide receiver that has had success in the NFL. Basically, Stedman Bailey is a better football player and wide receiver than a pure athlete, perhaps the reason he was still available in the third round.

Wide Receiver is one of the most misjudged positions in the league. If you don’t believe that, go review all of the first and second round wide receivers and compare that to their career results. It is a position where teams can take advantage of arbitrage because the market value and actual value often varies heavily. With this selection, the St. Louis Rams did just that. Stedman Bailey holds very little risk for failure as an NFL wide receiver and has a very high upside as well. Stedman Bailey’s analytical profile screams that he  is destined for NFL success.