NFL 2013 Preseason Week 2 Football Notes

August 23, 2013 by

Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 2 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Michael Vick has won the starting job in Philadelphia. He has played tremendous this preseason and if going by the short sample, he is the logical choice. Vick has a tendency of turning the football over, and it is likely that a bigger sample size will bear that out. Luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles, they are deep in Quarterback options if the turnover trend emerges during the season.
  • TE Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He has Wide Receiver like potential out of the Tight End position, and just needs the right scheme to fit. With the San Diego Chargers struggling to keep WRs healthy, perhaps Ladarius Green will be able to carve more of a Wide Receiver like role even with a healthy Antonio Gates.
  • The New York Jets have to be concerned right now regarding with the Quarterback situation. Mark Sanchez has continued the 1:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions throughout the preseason. He has proven what he is. Geno Smith did not play after an injuring his ankle and having brutal practices. It is sort of like the quote, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” While Geno Smith is sidelined, he isn’t able to remove all doubt that he is not the long term answer at Quarterback for the New York Jets. Geno Smith is slated to start at QB for the New York Jets in Preseason Week 3.
  • It had to be nearly impossible for the St. Louis Rams to evaluate their second team wide receivers properly with the play of QB Kellen Clemens; WR Stedman Bailey was among this group that had little chance to be evaluated. Kellen Clemens provided a brutal Quarterback outing as he lived on the a rule of 2s; he threw 2 over the head of Bailey,completed 2 of his eleven passes, and then threw 2 interceptions. Quarterback is a difficult position to find and upgrade. Perhaps they could find an upgrade since there are 2 third string Quarterbacks that NDC analytics grades to have a good rate of success.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Strong Safety Shamarko Thomas led the team in tackles, providing 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He also forced a fumble that led to a turnover. He clearly demonstrated the skills of a successful Strong Safety.
  • While the Denver Broncos were getting beat like a drum by the Seattle Seahawks, the battle at running back raged on. RB Ronnie Hillman had 13 carries for 34 yards, and he turned the ball over with a fumble. A turnover and an average yards per carry of under 3 yards is going to make it tough to not hand the ball to RB Montee Ball; Ball had 6 carries for 28 yards, an average of 4.66 yards per carry. Analytically, it is clear that Montee Ball is the better ball carrier, but he did miss a blitz assignment that led to QB Peyton Manning being hit. The only thing that can keep him off the field is himself; it is based on his determination to learn and execute his pass block assignments. He has the skill set to be a successful runner in the NFL.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has yet to play this preseason due to a fractured finger. Now that it has healed and he has been cleard to catch passes, he should be available for evaluation in NFL Preseason Week 3 or Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly searching for answers at wide receiver as seen by the trading WR A.J. Jenkins to the Kansas City Chiefs for WR Jon Baldwin. Just like Jenkins, Baldwin has an analytical profile that suggests a high risk of failing.
Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Strong Safeties (SS), Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 1

August 12, 2013 by

Volume 1 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • After missing two games with an undisclosed injury to his knee, Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver Rishard Matthews has returned to practice, running a vertical route and making a fantastic catch down the sideline on a Ryan Tannehill pass; it was described as the play of the day.
  • Atlanta Falcons Cornerback Desmond Trufant had a nice start to his career, playing well in his NFL debut. As quoted from Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith, “I was impressed with the way that they [Desmond Trufant / Robert Alford] handled it, not only their production on the field but their grade sheet when we graded it on Friday.” 
  • Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson demonstrated his elite skills in the return right off the bat, with a 50 yard return on the opening kickoff. Despite less than ideal route running skills, he was also able to produce in the passing game with 4 receptions for 54 yards

More to follow on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason later in the week.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Atlanta Falcons, Cornerbacks (CB), Detroit Lions, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Wide Receivers (WR)

A Comparative Analysis Summary Of The New York Jets Quarterbacks Geno Smith And Mark Sanchez

July 18, 2013 by

The New York Jets have been stricken with a disease that is a cancer to an organization, known as bad quarterback play. Mark Sanchez is what I would label as a “flat liner”. If you chart his QB Rating rating progression against time, you get a small dip early from just over 70 to just below 70 and slight bounce back to just over 70 and then a pretty long pretty flat line. Entering the 2013 NFL season, Mark Sanchez sits at a career QB rating of 71.7.

Thus, as a response, the New York Jets drafted another Quarterback, selecting QB Geno Smith in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft with the 39th pick overall. One type of analysis I do is break down a prospect with a mix of known metrics, often with my own modifications, and a number of my own proprietary metrics plus a clear rule and methodology for inclusion. I can then compare this to all players at the position to find the closest comparisons for a draft prospect and get a clearer picture of a floor/ceiling; better yet, I can remove human bias that I may have about a player.

The quarterback comparisons for Geno Smith are all either backup quarterbacks or out of the league currently. This group combines for 22 games started and 49 games played in the NFL. The QB Rating of their cumulative stats is in the 60s with an upside into the low 70s. From an analytical perspective, it is hard to believe that Geno Smith is going to be the quarterback solution for the New York Jets. Perhaps he can overcome the odds.

Interesting enough, the cumulative NFL stats for Mark Sanchez’s comparison group, excluding Sanchez, nets a 72.6 QB rating; compare that to Mark Sanchez’s career QB rating of 71.7. The New York Jets organization faces tough obstacles and will need resolve to overcome.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB)

How Much Of An Upside Does Chicago Bears DE Cornelius Washington Have?

July 13, 2013 by

The Chicago Bears selected DE Cornelius Washington in the 6th round with the 188th pick overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. He has been an intriguing prospect based on some of his analytics, and therefore is a good draft pick for NFL Data Consultants to weigh in on.

Physically, Cornelius Washington meets thresholds that are rarely seen. The physical metrics just jump right off the page and should be intriguing to anyone evaluating him analytically. He physically compares to defensive ends that have performed well in the league. He also compares analytically to DE Vernon Gholston, who was selected 6th overall in the 2008 NFL Draft by the New York Jets and did not last long in the league. Gholston had 14 sacks in his final season, which was more sacks than Washington had in his whole collegiate career. For this study, Vernon Gholston is a good comparison case.

Vernon Gholston had warning flags, not because of his athletic gifts, but when you look at the production. He had good production in raw number form with 8.5 and 14 sacks in his final two seasons. However, he played in less than 5 games that would be classified as games that would meet our standards for inclusion out of his 27 total games. That is a very low number and would raise questions on much of the production from his fantastic raw numbers.

Cornelius Washington played in about 5 times as many included games as Vernon Gholston, thus his production metrics will hold more validity. On a per game basis, he was challenged slightly less than Vernon Gholston. Cornelius Washington flashed early with production, but has been in a drought since 2010 in terms of production. Despite his fantastic physical metrics, the odds are stacked against him to break 4 sacks in a single season.

The objective is to do a risk analysis and look at it from a probabilistic standpoint.  Can he break 4 sacks? Physically, he should be able to net double figures in a single season, but his overall risk analysis places a much lower upside. Without further data and information that an organization may have available to analyze, it would be difficult to answer the question: Why does Cornelius Washington have such a dichotomy between his physical and production metrics? What can be said is that unlike Vernon Gholston, Cornelius Washington was drafted much closer to his long term market value as a defensive end.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Chicago Bears, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft

The Flying-20 On Trial: An Indicator Of Success For Wide Receivers?

December 29, 2012 by

At the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2012, an executive for the 49ers, Parag Marathe,  brought up a metric called the Flying-20.  This is the last 20 yards of a 40 yard dash.  He exclaimed that it is a metric that can be used to predict success, citing Jerry Rice as the example.  Whether Jerry Rice had a fantastic Flying-20 or not is irrelevant in this study.  What is on trial is the validity of the Flying-20 by looking at some of the best Flying-20 scores over the last few years.

 

Flying-20: 1.71

WR A.J. Love and WR Rondel Menendez

Undrafted out of South Florida, Love was waived twice by the Vikings this offseason and failed to catch a pass in preseason.

Menendez (Eastern Kentucky) had a leg up on Love in that he was drafted at #247 in the 1999 draft by the Atlanta Falcons.  Even so, Menendez never had a reception.

Flying-20: 1.72

Tyrone Calico and Eron Riley

Calico ran a tremendous 4.34 out of Middle Tennessee State and was drafted by the Titans in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft.  He played in 27 games, starting 8 and netting 42 catches for 501 yards and 4 TDs.  I would say that it was mighty fine production from a 2nd round pick with such a good Flying-20 score, but I don’t have a sarcasm font available to me.

Eron Riley was undrafted out of Duke and signed with the Ravens after the 2009 draft.  He never played a game for them, lasted 5 days with his next team the Panthers, spent a little time on the Broncos practice squad, and was released in December of 2011 by the Jets.  Just like the WRs with 1.71 Flying-20 scores, Riley does not have an NFL reception.

Flying-20: 1.73

Jeris McIntyre

McIntyre was selected in the 6th round in the 2004 draft by the Kansas City Chiefs after playing college ball at Auburn.  His Flying-20 score and SEC roots were not enough to net him any catches at the NFL level.

We have just looked at the five fastest Flying-20 scores in my database and among the 5 WRs, the average NFL stats are 8.4 receptions, 100.2 yards, and .8 TDs.  That is not a per game stat… that is a per career stat.

Flying-20: 1.74

Trindon Holliday, Ben Obamanu, and Isaiah Jackson

Another SEC player, Trindon Holliday was taken in the 6th round of the 2010 draft by the Houston Texans.  He has shown some dynamic return ability, but he has 6 fumbles to 2 receptions in his career.

Ben Obomanu was a 7th round pick in the 2006 draft by the Seahawks after playing his college ball at Auburn.  In five seasons, he has 87 career receptions for 1,209 yards and 7 TDs.

Isaiah Jackson was undrafted in 2012 out of Central Arkansas.  Although he did put up great workout numbers in his Pro Day, Jackson has not garnered much attention.

Flying-20: 1.75

Darrius Heyward Bey, Troy Williamson, and D’Andre Goodwin

Heyward-Bey was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Oakland Raiders after playing his college ball at Maryland.  Taken this high, and with one of the best Flying-20 scores, he has to be a shoe-in for success, right?  In 4 seasons, he has caught 140 passes for 2071 yards, and 11 TDs.  That turns out to be 2.5 catches and 37 yards per game.  I am starting to wonder if Marathe was just trying to bait teams into taking the high Flying-20 WRs if they didn’t do their homework.

Troy Williamson was also taken 7th overall in the 2005 draft by the Minnesota Vikings.  He lasted 3 seasons with the Vikings before being traded for a 6th round pick and played 10 games for the Jaguars, netting 8 receptions.  In all, Williamson had 87 catches for 1,131 yards and 4 TDs.

Goodwin went undrafted after the 2011 draft and has yet to catch a pass.  Do you think he is the one likely to break this trend?

In Conclusion:

Now that we have looked at the top 11 Flying-20 scores in recent years, and have very little to show for it, one must be highly skeptical that the Flying-20 is a legitimate metric to evaluate WRs.  In fact, you would have to go 13 deep before you found a WR that made a Pro Bowl roster.  That was Devin Hester, and he made it as a return man.  There is an answer on how to find quality WRs at a fraction of the cost, but it does not appear to be the Flying-20.

Filed Under: Atlanta Falcons, Core Principle Articles, Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Wide Receivers (WR)