NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 1

August 12, 2013 by

Volume 1 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • After missing two games with an undisclosed injury to his knee, Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver Rishard Matthews has returned to practice, running a vertical route and making a fantastic catch down the sideline on a Ryan Tannehill pass; it was described as the play of the day.
  • Atlanta Falcons Cornerback Desmond Trufant had a nice start to his career, playing well in his NFL debut. As quoted from Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith, “I was impressed with the way that they [Desmond Trufant / Robert Alford] handled it, not only their production on the field but their grade sheet when we graded it on Friday.” 
  • Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson demonstrated his elite skills in the return right off the bat, with a 50 yard return on the opening kickoff. Despite less than ideal route running skills, he was also able to produce in the passing game with 4 receptions for 54 yards

More to follow on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason later in the week.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Atlanta Falcons, Cornerbacks (CB), Detroit Lions, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Wide Receivers (WR)

Going Back To Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver, Rishard Matthews

July 1, 2013 by

While the reports continue to vary on the role WR Rishard Matthews will have with the Dolphins in 2013, he remains under valued in the market. He was taken in the 2012 draft with pick 227 overall in the 7th round.  He has a solid production metric at wide receiver and his total value as a wide receiver and punt returner is past what you see from wide receivers that are typically the better producers in the NFL.

So how does analytics compare WR Rishard Matthews to WR Armon Binns? Binns has been making headlines for having a very good offseason.  That said, when comparing the two, Matthews had better production metrics for both wide receiver and special teams value, better reliance metrics, faced much better competition, and will make more plays at the NFL level. According to our analytical system, WR Rishard Matthews has a ceiling consistent with early round WRs. The Dolphins spent a lot of money on a wide receiver this offseason believing it would fix their “pin the tail on the donkey” methodology with evaluating wide receivers, including overpaying Brian Hartline who had 74 receptions and only 1 TD.  I am confident that WR Rishard Matthews will have more TDs in his first 74 NFL receptions.  He currently sits at 11 receptions.

While the Dolphins left value on the table, they had a solid early part of the draft. Rishard Matthews continues to be one of the biggest arbitrage selections at WR in recent years from my view, behind only WR Cecil Shorts, and a wide receiver in this class coming in a future post.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

San Francisco 49ers: Pro Football’s Gold Standard

March 16, 2013 by

NFL Free Agency is a firestorm for creating football discussion.  It garners the majority of attention, while often the true mechanisms of winning go unnoticed.  One such organization that has taken steps necessary to be an elite organization is the San Francisco 49ers.

On March 1, the San Francisco 49ers announced a partnership with SAP, becoming the first NFL organization to partner with big data to improve inefficiencies in their system.  More importantly, it provides a measuring stick, and this system provides it on the fly.  Every other organization that has not embraced this system or something very similar has no chance  for success in a league built on parity and difficult financial decisions.  The longer organizations wait to embrace analytical based systems, the wider the gap will grow between have and have-nots.

The Baltimore Ravens punctuated this further by bringing home a Super Bowl trophy.   They are one of the few NFL organizations with an analytical department.  The parity environment that the NFL has setup is one that manifests a snowball effect.  For every personnel decision that is above the league average success rate, it will create winning momentum.  Success percentage over the league average provides the ability to play with house money.  Every organization that is below the league average in success percentage is handing over wins to those willing to take them.

To highlight a recent example, lets compare two personnel decisions.  One of these decisions is a great decision because it has a high probability of returning success.  The other decision has a low probability of success.

Transaction 1: The San Francisco 49ers acquire Aquan Boldin from the Baltimore Ravens for a 6th round pick and pay him $6 million.

Transaction 2: The Miami Dolphins sign Brian Hartline to a 5 year deal valued at $30.775 million, including $12.5 million guaranteed.  It is an amazing figure for a player that was the #1 WR a year ago yet only scored 1 TD.  There are four years of data to also demonstrate that the 1 was not an aberration.  It was his season total in three of four seasons.

Boldin equaled or bettered the number in 10 of his 10 seasons in the league and has scored 7 or more TDs in half of his 10  seasons.  Boldin is an investment in winning while Hartline is just an investment in a player that plays wide receiver.  As long as Miami makes personnel decisions with no fruit in winning, they will be handing over wins to organizations willing to take them, like the San Francisco 49ers.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)

The Patriot Way And WR Evaluation

February 26, 2013 by

One of the organizations I respect is the New England Patriots because they are an organization that embodies intelligence and doing things that are outside the box.  One such example was their ability to redefine how teams use multiple TEs to create on field mismatches.

One area however that the organization has struggled with over the past few years is the evaluation of WRs in the NFL rookie draft.  Lets take a look at their selections of wide receivers since 2000, the year that they selected Brady, so you can see for yourself.

 

Looking at these wide receivers, it is quite easy to understand why they have gone to free agency for wide receivers.  Chad Jackson was the highest WR taken among this group.  As a 2nd round pick, he could be characterized as a complete failure.  As a Patriot, he lasted 2 seasons and only started one game and caught 14 passes.  In one of the key metrics I use as a gauge for WR play, he rated well below the standard bar so it would be no surprise that he struggled at the NFL level.   Matt Slater has caught 1 pass, Taylor Price caught 5, Brandon Tate caught 24, and Bethel Johnson lasted long enough for 35 receptions.  With the exception of Deion Branch, the other 4 WRs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (Jackson, Tate, Price, and Johnson), the Patriots received a return of only 79 receptions.  A 20% success rate at the position in the draft for rounds 2 and 3 would concern me as an organization.

Wide Receiver is a heavily misjudged position for a number of reasons.  The fact is that this misjudgment has created arbitrage opportunities for an organization looking to take advantage of it.  In 2011, the arbitrage WR was Cecil Shorts, and in 2012, the arbitrage WR plays for an organization where the Head Coach wanted to play Pin the Tail on the Donkey to determine which WRs to keep.  Fortunately for the Miami Dolphins, they cut the WR drafted ahead of Rishard Matthews, then cut Jabar Gaffney, and continued to increase his playing time late in the season.  He compares to two WRs taken in the early first round.

With the known information at this point, the early favorite for this year’s arbitrage WR is emerging.  He is comparing favorably to Roddy White at this early stage and is projected to go on the final day of the draft.  If your organization is looking for a Wide Receiver with that type of comparison for a discount, NFL Data Consultants is the place for you.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)