NFL 2013 Preseason Week 3 Football Notes

Notes and Updates from Week 3 of the 2013 NFL Preseason are below:

  • As mentioned in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes, Michael Vick had played excellent football in the short sample size, but had mixed results when given a larger sample. QB Nick Foles is probably the first Quarterback in history to lose a QB job with an 84% completion percentage with a  QB Rating. Bill Parcells was once quoted, “You all act like you can dial 1-800 and get a quarterback.” To that, I say he is literally correct. Right now, that phone number starts with a Philadelphia area code.
  • So who was the highest graded offensive player by Pro Football Focus for the Green Bay Packers in the third preseason game? It was none other than RB Alex Green, who had 2 carries for 31 yards and finally showed the burst that makes him an NFL Data Consultants favorite. He is in a crowded backfield now, but there is no doubt he can play and be an effective running back when healthy. With RB Johnathan Franklin ineffective and RB DuJuan Harris battling a knee injury, the door is opening for Alex Green.
  • New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith finally got back on the field after returning from an ankle injury. The quote in my Preseason Week 2 Notes says it all. QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions and accounted for a safety by running through the back of the endzone. To top that off, QB Mark Sanchez entered the game in the 4th quarter behind a backup offensive line and injured his right shoulder. The New York Jets is an organization in disarray, and the only way out of that is to take a long term analytical approach.
  • Unfortunately for the Arizona Cardinals, OG Jonathan Cooper is going to be potentially out for the season. Guard is a position of lesser value, but what how can this injury affect QB Carson Palmer? Remember pressure on the Quarterback will drop the QB Rating by 25% or more.
  • QB Mike Glennon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers demonstrated the Jekyll and Hyde persona of his analytical profile. He completed only 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards, but had a TD and no interceptions.
  • Defensive End Margus Hunt delivered his first preseason sack for the Cincinnati Bengals. Hunt also had two solo tackles, an assist, and a tackle for loss. With DE Michael Johnson playing the season on a franchise tag, DE Margus Hunt is likely going to be filling the position next year so he needs to develop and be ready by year two. Relatively new to the game of football, he still has a way to go in development; however, the ceiling remains high.
  • TE Luke Willson continues to run with the Seattle Seahawks first team offense. Willson had 2 receptions for 21 yards and continues to make rapid improvement, especially in his run blocking.  He will continue to make it difficult for the Seattle Seahawks Coaching Staff to get keep him off of the field.
  • Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball showed more of why he should get more opportunity over Ronnie Hillman at running back. Ball had 70 total yards, 43 rushing and 27 receiving and added a touchdown. Ronnie Hillman had 6 carries for 34 yards, but once again turned the football over with a fumble.
  • WR Quinton Patton made his first preseason appearance, which was referenced in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes. Patton led the San Francisco 49ers in receptions and receiving yards, catching 4 passes for 35 yards. For having a road bump in his rookie year development due to a fractured finger, the prediction that WR Quinton Patton would be better than A.J. Jenkins is practically in the bag after A.J. Jenkins had a horrific offseason and was traded away. Patton remains destined for a good future at wide receiver.

The Unique Case Of Green Bay Packers WR Charles Johnson

The Green Bay Packers drafted WR Charles Johnson in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  Johnson played at Grand Valley State, but he has a lot of physical tools.

Analytically, his profile is that of a wide receiver with excellent physical measures, and a tremendous production score. His reliance metric and volume do present increased risk that must be factored in.  Overall, he presents good upside from where he was selected in the NFL Draft. Additionally, he is one of the unique cases (see RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals) in the NFL Draft to not have a direct close comparative at his position logged into our system.  The list of wide receivers on the outer fringes does make an intriguing list though.

Cincinnati Bengals Roaring With DE Margus Hunt

When the Cincinnati Bengals selected Defensive End Margus Hunt in the 2013 NFL draft out of Southern Methodist University, they were doing based upon his athletic potential.  At 277 pounds, he ran a 4.62 and benched 38 reps at the combine.  As fantastic as those were, it demonstrates a very limited approach to an analytical profile.  It does however suggest that he has a safety net for impact in the league on special teams.

In the measures that correlate with impact at DE, he met the barometer for future success.  Despite the label of being a raw prospect, he was challenged more than most DE prospects and had more experience doing it than you would believe from scouting reports alone.  He also triggered another major indicator that his best ball is not behind him.  That said, one of his indicators suggest he may have a slower start to his career, but he will be around for the long term due to his projected peak.  Fortunately, for him, his knack for blocking kicks and impacting special teams are critical for his opportunity to develop as a defensive end.