The Early Success of the NFL Data Consultants Win Rating System

Braden Abshire of NFL Data Consultants finished development of a rating system similar to the QB Rating and ESPN’s QBR rating systems. The NDC Win Rating system was superior by about 3% on ESPN’s QBR and 8.5% on the NFL’s QB Rating. It was also superior when compared to some other variations of rating systems out there. It tested at over 96% in the test set, and was validated at over 88% when tested on over 3200 NFL Games.

The NDC Win Rating system provides a rating for each side of the ball, and then the differential is the final team rating. In the NFL, 10 of the top 11 teams made the playoffs. The lone team to miss from that group was the Buffalo Bills, who finished ranked #9 in the NDC Win Rating and had 9 wins on the season.

The NDC Win Rating System is a useful tool in other areas. It can be a beneficial tool for strategy, gameplanning, and decisions. It can also identify under the radar coaches at the NFL or NCAA levels. This is a useful tool for NFL organizations and NCAA schools that want to interview rising candidates in the coaching ranks. Please note that this is only a tool as the selection of a coach also depends on organizational fit, but it can help determine the coaches that are worth talking to in order to determine fit with your football organization or program.

In following how the NDC Win Rating system would work at the College Football Level, the results have been incredibly strong with the NDC Win Rating system. The top 7 teams using seasonal ratings all won their bowl games, and teams #8, #9, and #10 all lost to top 7 teams. Ohio State was #1 and Oregon #3 heading into the games. Oregon has a large gulf between their offensive and defensive ratings, finishing #1 in offense, #54 in defense thus creating a gulf score of 53. Ohio State is #3 in offense, #8 in defense with a gulf score of 5. Like standard deviations, this suggests that Ohio State is more consistent, but it also suggests that Oregon has more pressure to hold their offensive rating or to significantly lift the defensive rating in the upcoming game.

Oregon entered the game with a +26.58 rating differential over Florida State. In the game itself, Oregon finished +35.67. Ohio State entered the game with a +17.16 differential advantage on Alabama for the season. In the game itself, Ohio was +12.67 over Alabama. At halftime Ohio State was +18.66 despite being down by a point. Please feel free to follow NFL Data Consultants on Twitter.

NFL Data Consultants is looking for a sponsor for the NDC Win Rating System. Please contact me if you are interested.

Football Analysis – Post NFL Week 2 Notes

Two weeks and a Week 3 NFL Thursday Night game into the season, and NFL Data Consultants has notes and analysis on trades, NFL personnel decisions, and a review of some of the analytical predictions made regarding the careers of some NFL players.

  • Rarely do we see trades after only two weeks of the NFL season, but we saw a big one between the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis Colts acquired RB Trent Richardson for a 2014 1st round draft pick. There has been much debate as to who won this trade, but that cannot be known until the Cleveland Browns make a selection with the draft pick or use it in a trade. A simple way to evaluate a trade is to look at how it will affect Quarterback Rating differential for the organization. QB Andrew Luck is sitting at a career QB Rating of 78.4 after two weeks in the 2013 NFL season. Despite all the accolades he has received, his Quarterback Rating is below the standard necessary to sustain winning long term. The question then becomes is how much will his own development plus the benefit of the running game boost his Quarterback Rating. The barrier that needs to be surpassed is a QB Rating just over 90 since that is what the Indianapolis Colts defense has given up with Andrew Luck at Quarterback. For the Cleveland Browns, the team Quarterback Rating since the start of the 2012 season has been among the worst in the league at just above 70. The biggest key to having a positive Quarterback Rating differential will be at Quarterback, and thus whether this trade was good for them will be based on how they use the pick to improve the Team QB Rating offensively. Expect an analytical review of the Indianapolis Colts side of this trade after the season is completed.
  • After consecutive weeks of baffling gameday roster management by the Philadelphia Eagles, they finally let DE Vinny Curry play. He only played 12 snaps, but his first three snaps netted the following results: a sack, a Quarterback hit and errant throw that was nearly intercepted, and a holding penalty by the offensive lineman trying to block him. NFL Data Consultants projected him as a 45-12 (tackles-sacks) type of DE when he came out, and he needs to be on the field as often as possible.
  • While we are talking about the Philadelphia Eagles, QB Michael Vick may in the process of showing signs of a regression to the mean as a passer with a 49.4 QB Rating in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. His QB Rating on the season still remains at 96, and what he has been able to do for the run game remains a bright spot.
  • Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed continues to progress and see a steady diet of snaps at Tight End. In Week 1, he had 24 snaps, and followed that up with 26 snaps in Week 2. On the season, he has 8 catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown.
  • WR Quinton Patton of the San Francisco 49ers has not yet made an NFL reception, playing only on 13 pass snaps. While the Seattle Seahawks CB Richard Sherman was manhandling WR Anquan Boldin, the San Francisco 49ers lacked answers in the passing game. A solution to the problems exists on their own roster, but he needs more snaps on pass plays to make a difference.
  • Only four linebackers on the New England Patriots roster have logged snaps in the first two weeks. The only one without a negative grade by Pro Football Focus is LB Jamie Collins. However, Collins has only been on the field for 6 snaps, but should see increased playing time as long as continues to develop mentally.

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 2

Volume 2 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Reports out of the St. Louis Rams camp continue to remain very positive on WR Stedman Bailey. Below is a quote from ESPN’s NFC West Blog, written by Nick Wagoner: “Rookie receiver Stedman Bailey had another strong practice in what is now turning into a long line of them. He was essentially perfect in one-on-one drills and continued to get open and catch everything thrown his way in team drills. It remains to be seen if he can do it against the top corners but he’s having his way with the backups on a regular basis.” NFL Data Consultants has also confirmed this report with a league source.
  • Quarterback Matt Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles posted a 78.4 Quarterback Rating in his NFL preseason debut, completing 11 of 22 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Despite the struggles he had, he did not turn the ball over and he improved as the game went on, especially in the no huddle offense.
  • In the derby to start at Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles completed 5 of 6 passes for 43 yards and posted a QB Rating of over 100. His true test will come in NFL Preaseason Week 2, as he will be starting.  Michael Vick had a great outing with his 5 attempts, yet 5 attempts by Michael Vick and 6 attempts by Nick Foles is too small of a data sample to make any sound conclusions.
  • Seattle Seahawks Tight End Luke Willson got the start in place of the injured Zach Miller and caught 2 passes for 16 yards. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated that the rookie TE is having a great camp. His blocking continues to improve.
  • Buffalo Bills WR Robert Woods started at Wide Receiver in the preseason opener, where he caught 4 balls for 32 yards. Buffalo Bills General Manager Doug Whaley quoted the following regarding Robert Woods: “When he came into OTAs and even out here for training camp, he looks like a 10-year veteran. That’s exactly what we thought of him: Polished.”

This concludes the updates on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason

The Buffalo Bills, Moneyball, And WR Robert Woods

Bill President, Russ Brandon, declared that the Buffalo Bills would be a Moneyball organization.  While the 2013 NFL Draft was not a strong indication of that direction by their scouting department, the Buffalo Bills did take a very solid wide receiver prospect in Robert Woods.

WR Robert Woods was taken 41 overall in the second round out of Southern California.  Despite playing across from one of the more highly touted wide receivers in the nation in Marquise Lee, he put up good reliance and production analytical scores, both which suggest that he is a very small risk for failure.  At the wide receiver position, he was probably one of the safest plays if you were looking for a long term starter.   Interestingly enough, his comparative analysis also shows something very unique about him, but that will be left as a mystery to you for now.  What isn’t a mystery is that WR Robert Woods analytical profile shows he was a good selection by the Buffalo Bills.