The Indianapolis Colts And The T.Y. Hilton Learning Experience

July 9, 2013 by

While the 2013 NFL Draft appears to have been a tough one for the Indianapolis Colts, there is a lesson that was learned in the 2012 NFL Draft with WR T.Y. Hilton. Coming into the league, Hilton had the makeup of being dynamic with the ball in his hands while only possessing average wide receiver metrics. He is very similar in what WR Cordarelle Patterson offers the Minnesota Vikings. The lesson to be learned was to evaluate metrics that presented a clearer picture of a player that can offer more as a playmaker with the ball in their hands against only what they can do purely as Wide Receiver.

The result provided a boost to Hilton that would push him above the threshold for a long term wide receiver option. Hilton had a fine rookie campaign, catching 50 passes and 7 TDs. He had a great first step into his NFL career, but one of his metrics still puts a little bit of caution on him sustaining great numbers consistently for the long term.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Draft, Wide Receivers (WR)

The Unique Case Of Green Bay Packers WR Charles Johnson

July 2, 2013 by

The Green Bay Packers drafted WR Charles Johnson in the 7th round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  Johnson played at Grand Valley State, but he has a lot of physical tools.

Analytically, his profile is that of a wide receiver with excellent physical measures, and a tremendous production score. His reliance metric and volume do present increased risk that must be factored in.  Overall, he presents good upside from where he was selected in the NFL Draft. Additionally, he is one of the unique cases (see RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals) in the NFL Draft to not have a direct close comparative at his position logged into our system.  The list of wide receivers on the outer fringes does make an intriguing list though.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Bengals, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, NFL Draft, Running Backs (RB), Wide Receivers (WR)

Going Back To Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver, Rishard Matthews

July 1, 2013 by

While the reports continue to vary on the role WR Rishard Matthews will have with the Dolphins in 2013, he remains under valued in the market. He was taken in the 2012 draft with pick 227 overall in the 7th round.  He has a solid production metric at wide receiver and his total value as a wide receiver and punt returner is past what you see from wide receivers that are typically the better producers in the NFL.

So how does analytics compare WR Rishard Matthews to WR Armon Binns? Binns has been making headlines for having a very good offseason.  That said, when comparing the two, Matthews had better production metrics for both wide receiver and special teams value, better reliance metrics, faced much better competition, and will make more plays at the NFL level. According to our analytical system, WR Rishard Matthews has a ceiling consistent with early round WRs. The Dolphins spent a lot of money on a wide receiver this offseason believing it would fix their “pin the tail on the donkey” methodology with evaluating wide receivers, including overpaying Brian Hartline who had 74 receptions and only 1 TD.  I am confident that WR Rishard Matthews will have more TDs in his first 74 NFL receptions.  He currently sits at 11 receptions.

While the Dolphins left value on the table, they had a solid early part of the draft. Rishard Matthews continues to be one of the biggest arbitrage selections at WR in recent years from my view, behind only WR Cecil Shorts, and a wide receiver in this class coming in a future post.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)

Baltimore Ravens And Their 2013 NFL Draft

June 29, 2013 by

Baltimore is a team that has implemented an analytics department, and it shows with their 2013 NFL Draft selections of  Matt Elam (Strong Safety) and Arthur Brown (Inside Linebacker), two players that should be cornerstones for the defense for the long term.  Arthur Brown in particular meets a particular metric that has been a standard among the better ILBs in the league.  The Baltimore Ravens scouting department has traditionally been one of the best in the league.

However, I want to focus the analytical study more on WR Aaron Mellette, who has been a favorite of some other analytical minds.  He is also touted as having a good offseason.  His pure production analytic scores are great, but his reliance and comparative analytics are both huge red flags.  None of his comparative wide receivers have even made NFL rosters and they too have had good base production metrics.  He does have the best opportunity of the comparatives to break the trend of not making an NFL roster, but the odds are against him making a long term impact.  WR Aaron Mellette was a 7th round pick out of Elon by the Baltimore Ravens though, thus the miss here is of a minimal nature.  With ILB Arthur Brown and SS Matt Elam on board, the Ravens fans will not have to worry much about Mellette failing to make a long term impact.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), Baltimore Ravens, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Scouting Department, Strong Safeties (SS), Wide Receivers (WR)

The Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, And An Alabama RB Discussion

June 28, 2013 by

NFL Data Consultants was not a fan of what the Cleveland Browns did with their 2013 NFL Draft.  Despite the selection of QB Brandon Weeden in the 2012 NFL Draft, they did come away with some talent on offense with RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon (supplemental draft).  Josh Gordon is a case where an organization needs to assign its risk level because he had meet the criteria analytically of a player worth taking, but had other concerns that would affect his long term potential.  At least the Cleveland Browns aren’t totally devoid of analytics.  They do have a single analytics guy, which is better than nothing but it makes his job challenging depending on the level of analytical buy-in from the organization and scouting department.

With RB Trent Richardson, the Cleveland Browns took the best all around running back of the three primarily talked about running backs of Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, and Eddie Lacy in recent NFL Drafts.  Lacy has health concerns, and since I don’t have a medical team to put that into a proper measuring tool, I will speak about what can be seen analytically.  Lacy played the toughest competition of the three backs and was a hammer doing it.  His production metrics were outstanding, but they are only one piece of the puzzle.  His full picture compares him more to committee backs.  Richardson finished in the middle on production metrics, but presents the best overall package and the best ability of the three in the passing game.  Mark Ingram had the lowest competition score between the three and the lowest yards per carry.

Filed Under: Cleveland Browns, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)