NFL 2013 Preseason Week 1 Notes and Updates, Volume 2

August 15, 2013 by

Volume 2 of Notes and Updates as it pertains to Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason is below:

  • Reports out of the St. Louis Rams camp continue to remain very positive on WR Stedman Bailey. Below is a quote from ESPN’s NFC West Blog, written by Nick Wagoner: “Rookie receiver Stedman Bailey had another strong practice in what is now turning into a long line of them. He was essentially perfect in one-on-one drills and continued to get open and catch everything thrown his way in team drills. It remains to be seen if he can do it against the top corners but he’s having his way with the backups on a regular basis.” NFL Data Consultants has also confirmed this report with a league source.
  • Quarterback Matt Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles posted a 78.4 Quarterback Rating in his NFL preseason debut, completing 11 of 22 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Despite the struggles he had, he did not turn the ball over and he improved as the game went on, especially in the no huddle offense.
  • In the derby to start at Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, Nick Foles completed 5 of 6 passes for 43 yards and posted a QB Rating of over 100. His true test will come in NFL Preaseason Week 2, as he will be starting.  Michael Vick had a great outing with his 5 attempts, yet 5 attempts by Michael Vick and 6 attempts by Nick Foles is too small of a data sample to make any sound conclusions.
  • Seattle Seahawks Tight End Luke Willson got the start in place of the injured Zach Miller and caught 2 passes for 16 yards. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated that the rookie TE is having a great camp. His blocking continues to improve.
  • Buffalo Bills WR Robert Woods started at Wide Receiver in the preseason opener, where he caught 4 balls for 32 yards. Buffalo Bills General Manager Doug Whaley quoted the following regarding Robert Woods: “When he came into OTAs and even out here for training camp, he looks like a 10-year veteran. That’s exactly what we thought of him: Polished.”

This concludes the updates on Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Preseason

Filed Under: Buffalo Bills, Football Analytics, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), St. Louis Rams, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

What To Make Of The Philadelphia Eagles Draft Selection Of QB Matt Barkley?

July 19, 2013 by

When the Philadelphia Eagles traded up to the first pick in the 4th round to select QB Matt Barkley, what did they know that all other teams did not?  Head Coach Chip Kelly is known for being an outside the box thinker, and if that translates to good personnel decisions, it will be great for the Philadelphia Eagles fan base.  Matt Barkley’s Quarterback analyical profile was the best in this class according to NFL Data Consultants.

Yes, it is the human bias in us all that would have to do a double take on a USC Quarterback.  My own human bias had me do a study comparison of him versus the other previous USC Quarterbacks, and there are some things that clearly demonstrate that he is different.  Even though he is NFL Data Consultants best Quarterback of the 2013 NFL Draft class, he may not even the best long term QB on his own roster.  Nick Foles was a Quarterback that I was very high on after an analysis that I did last year comparing him to an elite NFL QB; while he did not get a benefit that the comparison QB did, the other side of that comparison remains incomplete for now.  Regardless, the sooner that the Philadelphia Eagles move on from turnover king, Michael Vick, the better it will be long term for this organization.

Although the analysis is incomplete on Nick Foles, it is interesting to note the following quote from Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com: “Foles last year became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for at least 240 yards per game while completing 60 percent of his passes.” Both young QBs compare to Pro Bowl Quarterbacks and the position looks bright for the Philadelphia Eagles for the long term.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), NFL Draft, Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB)

A Comparative Analysis Summary Of The New York Jets Quarterbacks Geno Smith And Mark Sanchez

July 18, 2013 by

The New York Jets have been stricken with a disease that is a cancer to an organization, known as bad quarterback play. Mark Sanchez is what I would label as a “flat liner”. If you chart his QB Rating rating progression against time, you get a small dip early from just over 70 to just below 70 and slight bounce back to just over 70 and then a pretty long pretty flat line. Entering the 2013 NFL season, Mark Sanchez sits at a career QB rating of 71.7.

Thus, as a response, the New York Jets drafted another Quarterback, selecting QB Geno Smith in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft with the 39th pick overall. One type of analysis I do is break down a prospect with a mix of known metrics, often with my own modifications, and a number of my own proprietary metrics plus a clear rule and methodology for inclusion. I can then compare this to all players at the position to find the closest comparisons for a draft prospect and get a clearer picture of a floor/ceiling; better yet, I can remove human bias that I may have about a player.

The quarterback comparisons for Geno Smith are all either backup quarterbacks or out of the league currently. This group combines for 22 games started and 49 games played in the NFL. The QB Rating of their cumulative stats is in the 60s with an upside into the low 70s. From an analytical perspective, it is hard to believe that Geno Smith is going to be the quarterback solution for the New York Jets. Perhaps he can overcome the odds.

Interesting enough, the cumulative NFL stats for Mark Sanchez’s comparison group, excluding Sanchez, nets a 72.6 QB rating; compare that to Mark Sanchez’s career QB rating of 71.7. The New York Jets organization faces tough obstacles and will need resolve to overcome.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB)

Can OT Justin Pugh Answer The Call For The New York Giants?

July 7, 2013 by

The New York Giants have had a trend of taking defensive linemen in the first round of NFL Drafts.  This has been one of the key reasons that they have had success with some playoff runs. Pressure on a Quarterback has a tremendous affect in lowering the opposing team’s QB rating.  And the QB rating differential between two teams correlates highly with wins and losses.

Here is just one example:

During the New England Patriots 16-0 run in 2007, they had a QB rating differential of +37.9, a very substantial margin. It was why they won so many games and went undefeated during the regular season.  However, in the Super Bowl, the Giants were on the plus side of the equation with a +4.8 rating.  The biggest difference in that game was the heavy reduction of Tom Brady’s usual QB rating.  Eli Manning was just slightly above his career rating, and the team effort kept them on the plus side of the margin.

In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Giants drafted OT Justin Pugh. For value to be realized, he must be able to play and stick at right tackle for the long term. Based on his analytical profile, I believe it is a longshot that he will stick at offensive tackle and will have to make a move to offensive guard within the next 3-5 years. If Justin Pugh can overcome the odds and become a successful RT, it will have a significant impact to the QB rating on the offensive side of the ledger for Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Giants, NFL Draft, Offensive Guards (OG), Offensive Tackles (OT), Quaterbacks (QB)

The Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, And An Alabama RB Discussion

June 28, 2013 by

NFL Data Consultants was not a fan of what the Cleveland Browns did with their 2013 NFL Draft.  Despite the selection of QB Brandon Weeden in the 2012 NFL Draft, they did come away with some talent on offense with RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon (supplemental draft).  Josh Gordon is a case where an organization needs to assign its risk level because he had meet the criteria analytically of a player worth taking, but had other concerns that would affect his long term potential.  At least the Cleveland Browns aren’t totally devoid of analytics.  They do have a single analytics guy, which is better than nothing but it makes his job challenging depending on the level of analytical buy-in from the organization and scouting department.

With RB Trent Richardson, the Cleveland Browns took the best all around running back of the three primarily talked about running backs of Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, and Eddie Lacy in recent NFL Drafts.  Lacy has health concerns, and since I don’t have a medical team to put that into a proper measuring tool, I will speak about what can be seen analytically.  Lacy played the toughest competition of the three backs and was a hammer doing it.  His production metrics were outstanding, but they are only one piece of the puzzle.  His full picture compares him more to committee backs.  Richardson finished in the middle on production metrics, but presents the best overall package and the best ability of the three in the passing game.  Mark Ingram had the lowest competition score between the three and the lowest yards per carry.

Filed Under: Cleveland Browns, Football Analytics, NFL Draft, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Scouting Department, Wide Receivers (WR)