NFL Data Consultants Post NFL Week 1 And Cut Down Day Notes

September 11, 2013 by

Cut down day and Week 1 have now come and gone so it is time for further updates. NFL Data Consultants had identified 4 key waiver wire gems among the cuts and all four them ended up with NFL organizations very quickly. Only one of the them ended up with an organization that does not have an analytics department, while 3 of them landed with organizations that do use analytics.

  • One of the oddest decisions of Week 1 was the inactivation of DE Vinny Curry of the Philadelphia Eagles. In the preseason, he was practically unblockable and applied constant pressure on the quarterback. With the fast break offense of the Eagles, the organization should have confidence that it will be in the lead and thus in a situation where pass rushers should be on the field.
  • New York Jets QB Geno Smith ran a little bit ahead of his QB Rating, going 24 for 39 with 214 yards passing and a touchdown and interception. His QB Rating was 78.6, a little better than the low to mid 70s upside he is projected at. Now he will be challenged with a short week and the New England Patriots.
Filed Under: 3-4 Defensive Ends (DE), 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), Arizona Cardinals, Football Analytics, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Offensive Guards (OG), Philadelphia Eagles, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins

NFL 2013 Preseason Week 3 Football Notes

August 25, 2013 by

Notes and Updates from Week 3 of the 2013 NFL Preseason are below:

  • As mentioned in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes, Michael Vick had played excellent football in the short sample size, but had mixed results when given a larger sample. QB Nick Foles is probably the first Quarterback in history to lose a QB job with an 84% completion percentage with a  QB Rating. Bill Parcells was once quoted, “You all act like you can dial 1-800 and get a quarterback.” To that, I say he is literally correct. Right now, that phone number starts with a Philadelphia area code.
  • So who was the highest graded offensive player by Pro Football Focus for the Green Bay Packers in the third preseason game? It was none other than RB Alex Green, who had 2 carries for 31 yards and finally showed the burst that makes him an NFL Data Consultants favorite. He is in a crowded backfield now, but there is no doubt he can play and be an effective running back when healthy. With RB Johnathan Franklin ineffective and RB DuJuan Harris battling a knee injury, the door is opening for Alex Green.
  • New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith finally got back on the field after returning from an ankle injury. The quote in my Preseason Week 2 Notes says it all. QB Geno Smith threw three interceptions and accounted for a safety by running through the back of the endzone. To top that off, QB Mark Sanchez entered the game in the 4th quarter behind a backup offensive line and injured his right shoulder. The New York Jets is an organization in disarray, and the only way out of that is to take a long term analytical approach.
  • Unfortunately for the Arizona Cardinals, OG Jonathan Cooper is going to be potentially out for the season. Guard is a position of lesser value, but what how can this injury affect QB Carson Palmer? Remember pressure on the Quarterback will drop the QB Rating by 25% or more.
  • QB Mike Glennon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers demonstrated the Jekyll and Hyde persona of his analytical profile. He completed only 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards, but had a TD and no interceptions.
  • Defensive End Margus Hunt delivered his first preseason sack for the Cincinnati Bengals. Hunt also had two solo tackles, an assist, and a tackle for loss. With DE Michael Johnson playing the season on a franchise tag, DE Margus Hunt is likely going to be filling the position next year so he needs to develop and be ready by year two. Relatively new to the game of football, he still has a way to go in development; however, the ceiling remains high.
  • TE Luke Willson continues to run with the Seattle Seahawks first team offense. Willson had 2 receptions for 21 yards and continues to make rapid improvement, especially in his run blocking.  He will continue to make it difficult for the Seattle Seahawks Coaching Staff to get keep him off of the field.
  • Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball showed more of why he should get more opportunity over Ronnie Hillman at running back. Ball had 70 total yards, 43 rushing and 27 receiving and added a touchdown. Ronnie Hillman had 6 carries for 34 yards, but once again turned the football over with a fumble.
  • WR Quinton Patton made his first preseason appearance, which was referenced in the NFL Preseason Week 2 Notes. Patton led the San Francisco 49ers in receptions and receiving yards, catching 4 passes for 35 yards. For having a road bump in his rookie year development due to a fractured finger, the prediction that WR Quinton Patton would be better than A.J. Jenkins is practically in the bag after A.J. Jenkins had a horrific offseason and was traded away. Patton remains destined for a good future at wide receiver.
Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Coaching Staff, Denver Broncos, Football Analytics, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Offensive Guards (OG), Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quaterbacks (QB), Running Backs (RB), San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Strong Safeties (SS), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tight Ends (TE), Washington Redskins, Wide Receivers (WR)

Can OT Justin Pugh Answer The Call For The New York Giants?

July 7, 2013 by

The New York Giants have had a trend of taking defensive linemen in the first round of NFL Drafts.  This has been one of the key reasons that they have had success with some playoff runs. Pressure on a Quarterback has a tremendous affect in lowering the opposing team’s QB rating.  And the QB rating differential between two teams correlates highly with wins and losses.

Here is just one example:

During the New England Patriots 16-0 run in 2007, they had a QB rating differential of +37.9, a very substantial margin. It was why they won so many games and went undefeated during the regular season.  However, in the Super Bowl, the Giants were on the plus side of the equation with a +4.8 rating.  The biggest difference in that game was the heavy reduction of Tom Brady’s usual QB rating.  Eli Manning was just slightly above his career rating, and the team effort kept them on the plus side of the margin.

In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Giants drafted OT Justin Pugh. For value to be realized, he must be able to play and stick at right tackle for the long term. Based on his analytical profile, I believe it is a longshot that he will stick at offensive tackle and will have to make a move to offensive guard within the next 3-5 years. If Justin Pugh can overcome the odds and become a successful RT, it will have a significant impact to the QB rating on the offensive side of the ledger for Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Giants, NFL Draft, Offensive Guards (OG), Offensive Tackles (OT), Quaterbacks (QB)

The Arizona Cardinals Improve Their Offensive Line With OG Jonathan Cooper

June 25, 2013 by

The Arizona Cardinals have not excited me with their recent drafts.  Their best offseason move was to bring in Bruce Arians, to be Head Coach as he will likely be a tremendous benefit to the offense.  There is a reason he has the nickname of Wide Receiver Whisperer.

While the Arizona Cardinals did not take advantage of the abundance of arbitrage opportunities in the 2013 NFL Draft, they did have a solid selection worth mentioning.  First, the value of the position of this player relative to where he was selected is for another article.  I am not grading where the player was, but the quality of a player for his position and long term value.  OG Jonathan Cooper has the analytical profile of a guard that will be starting for many years.  One of his non-modified metrics meets the thresholds you would want in a good OT or DE, but he will be doing it from the Guard position.  The fact that they have a guard that will be a very good player at his position is worth noting.  Again, positional value of offensive guard is worth an analytical study.

Filed Under: Arizona Cardinals, Football Analytics, Head Coaches (HC), NFL Draft, Offensive Guards (OG)