An Interesting Look Into San Diego Chargers Tight End Ladarius Green

July 14, 2013 by

For the San Diego Chargers, I will focus less on the 2013 NFL Draft and more on an unheralded prospect from the 2012 NFL Draft. This article will take a deeper look at TE Ladarius Green and his future outlook in the NFL.

One key positive about TE Ladarius Green is that he had a higher score in the receiving production metric than did WR Keenan Allen. It is interesting to note that it is rare for a Tight End to hit the threshold for wide receivers in this metric, which Ladarius Green did. However, the reliance metric for Keenan Allen is strong, while it was negative for Ladarius Green.

Upon looking at the reliance metrics with all the tight ends sorted by the receiving production metric, there was one thing that stood out. No Tight End that meet the threshold for the production metric for the WR position had much NFL impact if they also had a negative reliance metric score, which fits the profile that Ladarius Green fits under.

The question then becomes, can Ladarius Green defeat this trend? He would become the first of 14 Tight Ends to have a receiving production metric that meets Wide Receiver thresholds while also having a negative reliance metric. Those are tough, but not insurmountable odds. He does have nice straight ahead movement metrics as well as other metrics that may signal success. The San Diego Chargers scheme will have to be tailored to maximize his upside and potential for that to happen.

Filed Under: Football Analytics, NFL Draft, San Diego Chargers, Tight Ends (TE), Wide Receivers (WR)

How Much Of An Upside Does Chicago Bears DE Cornelius Washington Have?

July 13, 2013 by

The Chicago Bears selected DE Cornelius Washington in the 6th round with the 188th pick overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. He has been an intriguing prospect based on some of his analytics, and therefore is a good draft pick for NFL Data Consultants to weigh in on.

Physically, Cornelius Washington meets thresholds that are rarely seen. The physical metrics just jump right off the page and should be intriguing to anyone evaluating him analytically. He physically compares to defensive ends that have performed well in the league. He also compares analytically to DE Vernon Gholston, who was selected 6th overall in the 2008 NFL Draft by the New York Jets and did not last long in the league. Gholston had 14 sacks in his final season, which was more sacks than Washington had in his whole collegiate career. For this study, Vernon Gholston is a good comparison case.

Vernon Gholston had warning flags, not because of his athletic gifts, but when you look at the production. He had good production in raw number form with 8.5 and 14 sacks in his final two seasons. However, he played in less than 5 games that would be classified as games that would meet our standards for inclusion out of his 27 total games. That is a very low number and would raise questions on much of the production from his fantastic raw numbers.

Cornelius Washington played in about 5 times as many included games as Vernon Gholston, thus his production metrics will hold more validity. On a per game basis, he was challenged slightly less than Vernon Gholston. Cornelius Washington flashed early with production, but has been in a drought since 2010 in terms of production. Despite his fantastic physical metrics, the odds are stacked against him to break 4 sacks in a single season.

The objective is to do a risk analysis and look at it from a probabilistic standpoint.  Can he break 4 sacks? Physically, he should be able to net double figures in a single season, but his overall risk analysis places a much lower upside. Without further data and information that an organization may have available to analyze, it would be difficult to answer the question: Why does Cornelius Washington have such a dichotomy between his physical and production metrics? What can be said is that unlike Vernon Gholston, Cornelius Washington was drafted much closer to his long term market value as a defensive end.

Filed Under: 4-3 Defensive Ends (DE), Chicago Bears, Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New York Jets, NFL Draft

The Damage Of The Dallas Cowboys Draft

July 12, 2013 by

The Dallas Cowboys seemed to exemplify an organization in disarray and troubled in its decision making. A draft that should be well planned for every possible scenario apparently didn’t factor in one in which they would draft C Travis Frederick in the first round. Besides images that allowed the Cowboys draft board to be put together, the camera also caught a heated exchange between Dallas Cowboys executives after their first round selection.

So, what do we make of the Dallas Cowboys 2013 NFL Draft? Well, they did stay with their draft board in terms of player rankings, but that is not always a positive. An NFL Draft is like a portfolio and you want the best portfolio possible at the end of the day. If player A is the top player on the board, then what should also factor in is the probability that he will make it to the next pick that you have. If that probability is high, you could take a player better with the current pick than you would have gotten with the next pick and come back and likely get the other player as well.

The Dallas Cowboys own draft board showed that they took a player with a 2nd round grade in the first round, even though he was the highest rated player on their board. With the ability to sign a first round pick to a longer rookie contract, it is highly likely that an organization would have had interest in the pick, and the Cowboys could have moved back and still taken him.

As for the evaluation of C Travis Frederick, the pick left a lot of value on the table both on his analytical profile and with the value of the position. The center position rates only above the RG position on the offensive line in terms of value related to a Quarterback’s rating.  They drafted a couple of decent players in this draft but missed heavily on value where arbitrage was at max value. In a league built on parity, the draft must be on maximizing value.

Filed Under: Centers (OC), Dallas Cowboys, Football Analytics, NFL Draft

The New England Patriots Great Trade Nets Them LB Jamie Collins

July 11, 2013 by

The New England Patriots were on the other side of the trade with the Minnesota Vikings in the 2013 NFL Draft, picking up 3 additional picks in the draft by moving from 29th to 52nd in the draft. In this case, the New England Patriots had their best move of the offseason.

This is a passing league, and QB Rating differential is a key indicator to wins. So, bringing in a defensive player that has the ability to do reduce the Quarterback Rating of the opponent in multiple ways is a tremendous value. Jamie Collins can do it in pass coverage and as a pass rusher. Getting to the passer will reduce a QB Rating by 25% or more, and Collins is off the charts in pass rush metrics. His analytical profile screams as a player destined to play in multiple pro bowls.

Jamie Collins also brings versatility to play multiple positions (ILB, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DE, MLB, WLB, SLB). At Southern Mississippi, he changed positions each year, and even played Safety for a season. In his final season, he had 10 sacks and 4 forced fumbles for a winless team. Rarely do you get such high upside with such a high floor, but that is a summary of Jamie Collins. He has barely scratched the surface of his potential since he has not had a chance to focus on a specific position.

It would be an understatement to say that the New England Patriots have had a very difficult offseason, but the trade to net multiple picks and still acquire the highest rated defensive player on our board was art in action. The New England Patriots drafted a player that I am confident will play in multiple pro bowls and be a force in this league for a long time.

Filed Under: 3-4 Inside Linebackers (ILB), 3-4 Outside Linebackers (OLB), 4-3 Middle Linebackers (MLB), 4-3 Strongside Linebackers (SLB), 4-3 Weakside Linebackers (WLB), Featured Articles, Football Analytics, New England Patriots, NFL Draft

How Risky Is WR Cordarrelle Patterson Of The Minnesota Vikings?

July 10, 2013 by

Yesterday, a review on WR T.Y. Hilton was posted speaking of the ability to isolate components of a game to try and get a better measure on what the overall value a player can add. The Vikings had three first round picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, and traded four picks (2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th) to move back into the end of the first round to get WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

So what did they draft when they selected Patterson? Well, there is no doubt Patterson is able to make plays with the ball in his hands. He faced stout competition and was challenged heavily, both metrics in his favor, but had a slightly less than neutral reliance metric score which may have little effect considering how low his wide receiver metric was. What pops out is the gap between his overall ability to make plays and his pure WR metric. The gap is very large, and his pure WR metric is very low while his overall ability metric clears the threshold with plenty of margin.

This type of profile suggests that Patterson may struggle as a pure WR, but will have the ability to do things that are special in other ways, including kick returner, punt returner,  and running game. In comparing Patterson to Hilton, this is what is seen: Hilton is a much better pure WR, but his overall metric is lower than Patterson. Patterson has a very low WR metric, but a higher overall metric. Comparative analysis compares Patterson’s game to a mix of WR Devin Hester and WR Jordan Shipley, although the advantage Patterson has on them is additional size. Hester has made numerous pro bowls as a return man, but has struggled as a wide receiver. He has also scored the most special teams touchdowns in NFL history. Shipley’s career has been derailed with injuries, but he did have 52 catches in his rookie season.

So, how risky is Patterson? He is quite a bit of risk at wide receiver, but at least brings a safety net of value that could impact games. Tomorrow, we will look at the other side of the trade that provided the Minnesota Vikings the right to select WR Cordarrelle Patterson as it may have been the most brilliant move of the draft.

Filed Under: Featured Articles, Football Analytics, Kick Returners (KR), Minnesota Vikings, NFL Draft, Punt Returners (PR), Wide Receivers (WR)