An Extensive Analysis On The Houston Texans Quarterbacks: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, And Case Keenum

This article is in place to demonstrate the difference between an emotional and analytical approach. Fans often have an emotional approach, and the Quarterback situation for the Houston Texans verifies that. NFL Data Consulants will show clear data that will show a much clearer analytical picture. I will highlight the analytical outlook of Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, and Case Keenum.

Matt Schaub has a lot of Texans fans upset, but that is because they don’t see the full picture. Schaub has posted seasonal Quarterback ratings of 92.7, 98.6, 92, 96.8, and 90.7 leading up to this year. Since Quarterback Rating differential correlates highly with wins, it is obvious that these are very good QB Ratings for the offensive side of the equation. The question then becomes, is the 78.8 this season his reality or is it an outlier? As stated in the New York Jets analysis of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith, this analysis is performed using a combination of analytics and neural network/machine learning methodology. This allows for groupings of very similar characteristics and football DNA that the human eye cannot see. It also absolves the human bias. Using nearly 900 QBs and only using data before entering the league, I have been able to establish Quarterback groupings that provide a picture of a Quarterback’s future. What will be amazing is just how close Schaub’s career Quarterback Rating is to his analytical group.

Now that we have seen Matt Schaub’s group, there is two things to note. First, Philip Rivers was in a two year slump himself. Second, that is a fine group to be associated with and Schaub has lived up to the comparison group with his career performance.

So, when the fans were cheering the Matt Schaub injury, just what were they getting with T.J. Yates. Lets look at his comparison group.

Wow, now look at the difference between that comparison group and the comparison group of Matt Schaub. It is night and day. The Houston Texans have no business replacing Matt Schaub except for injury. We have to look at the Case Keenum group to get a good comparison to see which Quarterback should be playing in the event of injury.

Case Keenum’s comparison has a mixed bag that includes high upside, but also a first round bust and an undrafted QB that left the league to go coach before ever playing a down in the NFL. Because of the upside, Keenum needs to be the #2 Quarterback on the depth chart. While the Scouting Department should be congratulated for landing his upside at such as steep discount, QB Case Keenum should be playing only under one of these three circumstances:

1) Matt Schaub is injured or

2) The Houston Texans have been eliminated from the playoffs or

3) The Houston Texans are in a blowout game (ahead or behind)

Head Coach Gary Kubiak and the Houston Texans Coaching Staff have gone with the right Quarterback with Matt Schaub set to miss time with his injury. The analytical approach is pretty strong and clear on who should be taking the reigns when Matt Schaub is not available. The Houston Texans organization has a lot of class, and it is an organization that I respect very much.


  1. […] reps when blowouts or injury make it possible. This was similar to the approach suggested for the Houston Texans Quarterbacks with Case Keenum and Matt Schaub, although Case Keenum’s QB group was not as strongly defined as Matt Barkley’s and […]