Running Backs And Speed Score: Knile Davis and Some Coffee

Football Outsiders created a metric called speed score that measures a speed to weight ratio and has typically been used to gauge potential for RBs.  Unlike the Flying 20 metric mentioned previously, the Speed Score metric for running backs has a higher correlation of success than many of the provided metrics.  It is not full proof though.  There are RBs that score lower than the league average and have a good deal of success and there are those that have high speed scores that do not have success.  There is always more to the story…

So when Knile Davis had a speed score of 124.49, one of the better speed scores ever recorded, it requires a deeper look.  Here is a running back that ran for 1,322 yards and 13 TDs  with a 6.5 yards per carry as a sophomore before running for 377 yards, 2 TDs, and a 3.4 yards per carry as a junior.  On the surface, one might see a Jekyll and Hyde situation.  Interviews aren’t going to tell you which way he leans as a player.  Interviews provide the means to information needed for qualitative analysis within the structure of building a team.

There is a systematic way to evaluate talent.

1)  Can they play? If you think this question can be determined with film alone, then it would be advisable to take a look at some of the past drafts.

2) If they can play, then that is where the qualitative factor comes into play from an organizational fit.  The best character in the world is irrelevant if the first standard is not met.

At NFL Data Consultants, I will not just take into account one metric or one season or one combine.  The purpose is to look below the surface and determine what the answer to #1 really is.  With what is known about Knile Davis to this point between his on field and athletic testing performance, he compares very closely to two backs in particular.  The number of factors in play leads to a high degree of confidence as to where his probability of long term success truly sits.  It is the benefit of using analytics, technology, and the outside the box analysis that NFL Data Consultants provides.